Wesley Moraes: A return that can prevent Aston Villa’s season from derailing

From Brugge to Birmingham, the Brazilian forward faced a difficult adjustment period to the English game. 14 months since Wesley Moraes last played a match in Claret & Blue, here’s how a return to Premier League football can benefit Aston Villa.

Suffering an injury on New Years day in the Villans’ 2-1 victory at Turf Moor, the 24-year-old sustained an injury that had ruled the forward out of action for the majority of the 2020/21 campaign. Wesley scored his fifth goal of the season in this clash with Sean Dyche’s Burnley, the Brazilian looking as if he’d finally found his feet in Europe’s most watched league.

"I hope to continue like this, to score a hat-trick!"

Wesley discusses his Villa journey so far ? https://t.co/LqLsETCwiW #PL #AVFC pic.twitter.com/oFB2ZymFAv

— Aston Villa (@AVFCOfficial) October 18, 2019

Having formed a connection with Jack Grealish, the 22-million-pound man was on course to hit ten plus goals before Ben Mee put a halt to Wesley’s season.

Achieving just 15 points from 14 matches in more recent times and a lack of goals from the front three, Villa’s slump from their fearsome opening start of the season to a derailing campaign has been lacking a powerful presence up top.

Throughout the 2020/21 league campaign, Villa have often opted for a lone striker in the England international, Ollie Watkins. However, a lack of goals and poorer performances since the turn of the year have led to the Villans underperforming in matches they should be dominating; leading to a suggestion which hasn’t been seen since the dark days of Steve Bruce, in the philosophy of two up top.

An idea which is thrown about around social media by Villa fans and perhaps not too bad of a shout. The ways in which Wesley and Watkins play would look to solve the issues of having an isolated striker, with pace, strength, and the ability to put the ball in the back of the net; Pat Rowe compares and analyses both forwards:

Although very different in stature, the in-game contributions of Wesley and Watkins are very similar. In 21 appearances last season in a struggling Villa side, Wesley tallied five goals and an assist with an expected goals value of 5 xG and expected assists value of 0.8 xA. Performing directly on his expected values indicates he was efficient in the job he did.

Oh Wesley ❤️ #AVFC pic.twitter.com/5Rx65dEepL

— George Elliott (@George_Ell2) August 23, 2019

Watkins has accumulated 10 goals and 3 assists with an xG value of 12.1 and an expected assists value of 2.9. All fans are aware Watkins has missed chances this year as his xG clearly shows, although most fans would put this down to Watkins being fairly unlucky. Would Wesley have finished these missed opportunities?

The players have similar pass completion rates with Wesley at 73.5% and Watkins at 71.7%. However, 17.6% of Watkins passes are progressive whereas for Wesley it is only 13%. This outlines a clear difference in the players, which is Watkins ability to progress Villa forward.

Progressive carries are where the players move towards the opponent’s goal with the ball at their feet. Per carry last season Wesley averaged 1.2 yards of progressive distance, whereas Watkins averages 2.86 yards. Watkins has a history of playing out wide so is clearly superior in this aspect, his ability to progress the ball whether it be by passing or dribbling alleviates pressure from Grealish, as he is not solely responsible for doing this.

Another difference would be the two players involvement and creativity amongst the squad. Wesley had 1.36 shot creating actions per game last season, whereas Watkins has 2.68 per game this season. Watkins ability to create for his teammates is far greater. He also has four shots that have led to goal scoring chances for example for Traore’s goal against Crystal Palace. Wesley had zero and had a severely lower overall impact going forward.

The defensive efforts of the two are similar. Watkins is often praised for his work ethic; Wesley’s defensive contributions are very alike. Watkins has 15.6 pressures per game and Wesley has 14.9. Watkins is more effective in applying this press, with a success rate of 31.1% to Wesley’s 24.9%.

Overall, Watkins’ statistics and overall contributions are greater than Wesley’s. However, it is difficult to compare the two simply due to the large difference in quality of squads. Villa struggled last season and were hardly a free-flowing attacking side. Watkins has benefited from a confident team and recently with Grealish out and confidence low, has struggled himself.

The return of Wesley to this squad is exciting to see what he can offer, whilst also being a character around the changing rooms and being close friends with fellow international teammate, Douglas Luiz, the Brazilian’s return to fitness at Bodymoor Heath has been quite the journey.

With his return date set to be after the current international break, Dean Smith commented on the 24-year-old’s injury:

“Wesley is in full-time training with us and we’ve arranged a match during the international break where we can get some game-time into him. That’s what he needs now.”

Having often seen Keinan Davis get some minutes under his belt, the Villans have the lowest contributions for Goals/Assists in the league (1G/1A). The return of Jack Grealish and Wesley will provide a much-needed morale boost as we advance into the latter stage of the season.

The teasing idea of Watkins and Wesley with Grealish sitting just behind may well be a formula that will deliver entertaining football, possibly driving Smith’s side way up the Premier League Table.

Although there has been a surplus of rumours on Twitter, suggesting that Villa will look to ‘cash in’ on the Brazilian.

FI SOURCES!?

– Aston Villa will listen to offers for Wesley this summer.?

– Another attacking overhaul planned as £1m-per-match man may leave.?https://t.co/5qrxCGt23G #avfc pic.twitter.com/jNvP6CdsGd

— Football Insider (@footyinsider247) March 22, 2021

Villa fans have seen some special moments produced by Wesley, from the goal under the lights against Everton, handing the Villans the lead against Arsenal away from home, as well as a fine performance against Norwich City in which the 24-year-old bagged a brace.

Recently announced, Wesley managed to play 45 minutes in a behind closed doors friendly against local rivals, West Brom. Looking ever so lively in a video which was released on the Aston Villa website, perhaps the Brazilian could feature against Fulham after the international break.

Another step closer. ?

Keep working, Wes! ?? pic.twitter.com/5iP6Hno5jt

— Aston Villa (@AVFCOfficial) March 26, 2021

There’s plenty more we’re yet to see of the Brazilian and there’s plenty of time before the forward is due to hit his prime. Having not been rushed back from his ACL injury, it’s clear to see the medical staff are taking every step to ensure that Wesley will be able to return to the level he was at previously; perhaps even higher.

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