Is Adam Webster now Brighton’s most important player?

A run of five league defeats in succession has dealt a significant blow to Brighton and Hove Albion’s hopes of securing a first-ever top-half finish in the Premier League.

The Seagulls have scored just once across fixtures against Manchester United, Burnley, Aston Villa, Newcastle United and Liverpool, and given how reliant they were on their sturdy backline in their strong first half of the campaign, the fact that Graham Potter’s side has conceded 11 goals in those same games is arguably an even greater concern.

The absence of centre-back Adam Webster since the 2-0 loss at Old Trafford has felt all the more important with every goal that has gone in at the wrong end. Given the plaudits he was receiving at the turn of the year, it should perhaps be no surprise that Brighton have missed him greatly whilst he has been forced to miss games with a groin injury.

In the 15 Premier League games this season when Webster has been in the team, Brighton have conceded an average of one goal per game and an expected goals total of 1.12 per 90. In the 13 league fixtures that Webster has been absent for, Brighton have conceded an average of just over 1.5 goals per game from an expected goals per 90 of 1.47.

These statistics cannot be taken as definitive proof that the Seagulls are better defensively when Webster is on the pitch given the relatively small sample sizes and caveats that include the fact that the 27-year-old has not played against either Manchester City nor Liverpool this season, but an uncharacteristic sloppiness at the back has defined the recent run of defeats. This has rarely been an issue with Webster in the side.

It is not only in purely defensive terms that Webster has such a great influence on this Brighton outfit though.

Sky Sports pundit and former England international Jamie Carragher claimed that his ability to pass the ball with both feet was ‘better than any other English central defender’ as the former Bristol City and Ipswich man produced a man-of-the-match display in the 1-1 draw against European Champions Chelsea in January.

Webster’s progressive passes – passes that travel in the direction of the opponent’s goal – have averaged a distance 471.3 yards per 90 this season. None of Brighton’s other options at centre-back can match this statistic, and only club captain Lewis Dunk is averaging over 400 yards per 90.

The 5-cap England under-19 international is not just impressing with his passing either. His average of 5.01 progressive carries – carries that move the ball forward at least five yards – over the past year sees him ranked in the 91st percentile for driving forward with the ball at his feet among central defenders across the ‘Big Five’ leagues in European football (Premier League, Ligue 1, La Liga, German Bundesliga, Serie A).

Even his often reserved head coach went as far as to suggest that Webster offers something that few rivals for a place in the England squad can.

“He has been fantastic and helps us to build our attacks. He was an important signing for us and an important player.

“If you want to build from the back and carry the ball and progress the game, he is fantastic and that is his quality.

“He has to be playing in the Premier League regularly to be mentioned in those terms (called up for to the England squad). But in terms of his attributes, I don’t see anybody else with the same level as Adam Webster has.”

– Brighton and Hove Albion head coach Graham Potter

Although drawing comparisons between how the Seagulls fare when Webster is missing and when Dunk is absent somewhat undermines just how effective they usually are when they play alongside one another in the same backline, Brighton’s form has been noticeably worse without Webster than it was when the skipper was unavailable over the festive period.

Potter’s side only lost once across the eight league fixtures that Dunk missed throughout December and January. When they have been without Webster this season they have lost six of 13. Pointedly, Brighton drew with Southampton and lost at home to both Wolves and Burnley in the three games that the pair have both been absent for.

Regardless of which of their imposing centre-backs has a greater influence on the fortunes of the team, Brighton supporters will no doubt be keen to see Webster back on the pitch in the not-too-distant future if they are to end their run without a win and re-ignite their hopes of a top-10 league finish.

Potter has suggested that the 27-year-old will likely be unavailable for Tottenham’s visit to the Amex on Wednesday evening, but should return when the Seagulls host Norwich City at the start of April.

Brighton will be hoping that their highly-rated centre-back will be available from then until the season’s end. It could well be the difference between a good season and a great one.

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