Nervous Mexicans Look on from Brazil, Wondering if They’ll Return

Mexico failed to impress just about anyone in their opening match of the Confederations Cup in Brazil.

2-1 flattered El Tri who barely troubled an Italian side that dominated the second half. True, they finally scored a goal, but it came from a penalty kick in their 2-1 loss.

In the World Cup Hexagonal group, they have scored just three goals in six games two in Honduras and one in Jamaica.

On the eve of  their second Confederations Cup match against Brazil, a match that could see them eliminated after just two games, they will be glued to their televisions nervously in Fortaleza  eyeing events in both Salt Lake, Utah and at the Estadio Nacional de Costa Rica in ‘the other’ San José.

The USA host Honduras tonight at the same time Costa Rica host Panama.

Those four nations plus Mexico make up the five with a realistic chance of securing the top three places that will automatically head to Brazil. The fourth place side has to play a two legged play-off with New Zealand and the fifth place side is eliminated.

One glance at the current Hexagonal table illustrates what is at stake. At six points from five games, Panama are the worst off side but they host Jamaica next match after tonight (September 6th).

CONCACAF FINAL ROUND STANDINGS AND SCHEDULE

Team	GP	W	L	T	GF	GA	GD	Pts.
USA	5	3	1	1	6	3	+3	10
Costa Rica	5	2	1	2	4	2	+2	8
Mexico	6	1	0	5	3	2	+1	8
Honduras	5	2	2	1	6	6	0	7
Panama	5	1	1	3	5	5	0	6
Jamaica	6	0	4	2	2	8	-6	2

Mexico however have no games left with the now Caribbean also rans.

From a Mexican viewpoint, a defeat for Panama at Costa Rica tonight would be helpful so as to leave them a little out the running. Should they pick up a point or worse still win, they leap frog both Mexico and Costa Rica with 9 points from six games.

Mexico and Costa Rica would stand at 6-8 and they meet in the last game of the Hexagonal in Costa Rica.

For Panama, with Jamaica at home to follow , they would almost certainly reinsert themselves into contention for a top 3 place.

Worse than that for fans of El Tri, they  find themselves hoping for a USA victory tonight to douse the flames of Honduran aspirations. Mexico host Honduras in the next game in the September round and the last thing they need is a buoyed up Honduran side entering the Estadio Azteca on a high while Mexico lick their wounds from a Confederations Cup embarrassment.

Standing currently at 10 points from five, the USA are almost on the plane given they have Jamaica at home to come; rivals will take points off each other and they are playing well enough to secure a place in the top half of the table from other matches.

If by some shock Honduras were to win in Utah tonight, Mexico would have a great deal of work to do in order to avoid a flight to Auckland and a nervous 3 hours against the All Whites of New Zealand.

As if to emphasis the uphill nature of that struggle, here is the Hexagonal table configured to show the net effect on them if Jamaica fall away and lose their remaining matches (goal differences left unchanged).

CONCACAF FINAL ROUND STANDINGS AND SCHEDULE if Jamaica Lose Remaining Games

Team	GP	W	L	T	GF	GA	GD	Pts.
USA	6	4	1	1	6	3	+3	13
Costa Rica	6	3	1	2	5	2	+2	11
Honduras	6	3	2	1	6	6	0	10
Panama	6	2	1	3	5	5	0	9
Mexico	6	1	0	5	3	2	+1	8
Jamaica	10	0	8	2	2	8	-6	2

Mexico still have to visit the USA and a defeat there would leave them needing to win both home games, against  Honduras and Panama, on either side of the trip to Columbus, Ohio, especially the latter match with Panama.

Those latter two sides meet of course while Mexico are in Columbus with Honduras at home and Panama the visitors. A Honduran win there would almost certainly by then leave the Mexicans slugging it out with Panama for fourth place.

Of course, Costa Rica and the USA are favourites to beat Panama and Honduras tonight both of which would relieve some of the pressure on Mexico.

But there’s a twist in the tail.

The Americans end the group in Panama in October, at the height of the race to secure MLS play-off places and a few weeks into the European season.

If Jurgen Klinsmann’s side have already qualified, one can easily see a situation where players with MLS clubs still to secure a play-off place are left out, and he uses the occasion to engender some goodwill with European clubs; which is a cute way of saying, give Panama a decent shout while Honduras are coasting in Jamaica, and the Mexicans visit Costa Rica.

That said, Mexico’s fate is still in their own hands, and no game will be as against as talented an opponent as they face tomorrow in Brazil.

We will know more after the Hondurans visit the Azteca on September 6th but It may turn out to be the last look the players have at the 2014 World Cup hosts.