Kicking the Numbers: Villa, Black Cats overachieved

For the first time in 22 years, Arsenal were Champions of England. We have done an expected goals analysis of both the German Bundesliga and English Premier League this season and here is the recap for the latter..

By the expected goals (xG) metric, no team in the EPL were more or less than a half goal above their average xG during the season. Aston Villa were top by exceeding their average xG by .30 goals per game while at the other end, Crystal Palace were 0.41 goals below. As far as goals against goes, Manchester City were tops by allowing 0.24 goals below their average cG per game, while Wolves were bad at scoring this season, they were also the worse performing team vs. xGA by allowing 0.35 goals more on average.

Wolves were expected to concede 1.44 goals per game, but ended up allowing 1.79 on average. Wolves were also expected to average 0.96 goals per match, but ended up scoring a paltry 0.71 goals on average. That was 0.29 goals per game worse than second from bottom in this metric–Burnley (1.00 per match).

Arsenal were expected to allow 0.71 goals per match this season and that’s exactly how much they conceded on average. Manchester City would be the only other team to allow less than a goal per match (0.92).

We tested the xG against the expected results. If the difference between the two sides was 0.25 xG or lower, we expected the result to be a draw. By that metric, the most overachieving side was Aston Villa followed by Sunderland. With their total xG for and against, Villa should have finished 16th on 38 points. However, actual goals count and they amassed 65 points and will play Champions League football next season as well as being Europa League Champions.. Sunderland were expected to be third bottom on 34 points. Instead, they amassed 54 in their first season back in the Premier League and will be in the Europa League next season.

Wolves and Burnley were expected to amass 32 and 15 points, respectively, but actually amassed 20 and 22, respectively. West Ham’s expected point total by our system would have put them safe in 15th–which was their exact total at 39, but the aforementioned Villa, Sunderland, and Everton all exceeded their expected point total by double-digits condemning the Hammers to the Championship. Both Liverpool and Leeds unperformed their expected point total by 13.

There are just a few of the observations we saw this season in the Bundesliga. Feel free to click on the link to the dashboard and make your own observations.