Messi has already won. The question remaining is who will lift the 2026 FIFA World Cup trophy, Spain or Argentina.

MAY 17, 2026 -Miami, FL Lionel Messi during an MLS match at Inter Miami CF (Photo by Diego G Diaz).

The Argentine star Lionel Messi has already been the main protagonist of this tournament. The tournament has had incredible highlights, including Kylian Mbappé’s goals, Rodri’s superb midfield play, and Cabo Verde’s success in the group stage. The biggest spotlight is still on Messi’s push, which has taken his team all the way to the Final. In today’s contest for glory, he will not be content with just making the Final for a third time, he wants his second FIFA World Cup trophy.

“Intention is everything,” I wrote then, and in today’s Final, the 39-year-old native of Rosario, already a legendary footballer, is most certainly going to make his last stand at the World Cup. He is not going to be content to parade his long, successful career; he is going to go for it. In front of them is a Spain that has shown an unparalleled display of game control, a team that attacks and defends as a block. They won’t just sit in their own half for most of the game, as most teams have done against Argentina. They could potentially turn the tables on them.

Spain arrives at the final in better form. This group of elite top-league players can play blindfolded and still find their passes, and they have looked to win their matches effortlessly, overcoming rivals with terrifying clarity, as they did against many’s great favorite of the tournament, France. Their show of order and game management has seen them concede just one goal all tournament. A truly scary statistic.

Argentina is not just Messi; he has a group that closes ranks around him fanatically. They don’t cave under pressure; if anything, they feed on it. They have suffered at the hands of influencers, including concerted campaigns promoting conspiracy theories, exaggerated claims of referee errors in their favor, and even the New York Times labeling them the “villains” of the tournament. These speculative efforts to vilify them have largely been overcome by the love and fervor of fans, who have again provided one of the biggest displays of team support at stadiums on game day, at home, and worldwide.

Argentina has shown a level of resilience that is unprecedented, coming back every time they were on the ground, given for dead time and time again, just to see them come through with the incombustible talent of Messi. Unpredictable? Not really; all statistics on those near eliminations show a team that attacks and creates many goal-scoring opportunities by a time of two or three to their opponents. If anything, they had been wasteful. Against England, for example, Nico Paz and Alexis MacCalister each had two incredible goal chances that, unbelievably, didn’t go in.

Defense-wise, Gary Neville spoke of “the best worst center-half pairing in the world.” While they might play a bit to the limit and Argentina gives away goals, these men also contribute on the attack when needed and help bring the ball up and past the midfield. They are strong in the air and unafraid to get caught in a one-on-one and come out with the ball.

The midfield has Leandro Paredes’ capacity for sacrifice in recovery and, like De Paul, the ability to push the team forward. Paredes has been the difference in the midfield time and again throughout the tournament. In attack, Julián Álvarez is a player who is growing in importance as the games have grown more critical, while Enzo Fernández, a versatile box-to-box midfielder, can strike from distance or run into the box, and Lautaro Martínez has been critical coming from the bench, scoring historic-grade goals.

Two teams with an ample variety of tricks to come out victorious. For sports books, as well as pundits and detractors of either team, predicting what will happen in the final is like playing roulette. Somebody will get red or black, the dozen, or even a specific number, but it’s entirely dependent on the alignment of the stars. The one thing written in history is that Lionel Messi led his team to consecutive finals; it has been his tournament. A Spain win will certainly still earn him the Golden Bal as the tournament’s MVP; he even has room for a headbutt, as in the famous Zinedine Zidane strike on Materazzi in the Germany 2014 final.

An Argentina win, on the other hand, will certainly put the strongest bet on the Ballon d’Or, his ninth. Pundits are right to call his already long list of accomplishments “out of this world”; saying that this would turn him into a deity is not an exaggeration. He has already proven himself to be one of the greatest players of all time; it’s not about whether he needs it; it’s that he wants it, very badly, and that is enough to break any prediction market or punditry, as he has already done every time he has stepped onto the pitch in this World Cup.

Whether Spain or Argentina comes out victorious, they will still have to contend with the nuisance of how much of the spotlight the US President wants to take at the trophy-award ceremony. Much like at the Club World Cup, when Infantino had to escort him to the back because he wanted to lift the trophy as American Football team owners do. The FIFA-awarded peace participation award (which one can’t seriously call that a peace prize) will likely provide an awkward, cringeworthy photo op, as authoritarian leaders do. With the unsavory footnote behind them, the real celebration will start when they reach the locker rooms and, later, after flying home, are greeted by the home fans.