Bundesliga Matchday 32 Preview: The Business End Begins

There will be a different format for the final three weeks of the Bundesliga season. Instead of going match-by-match, the focus will be divided into the title race, the race for Champions League and Europa League places, relegation battles, and the race for promotion from 2. Bundesliga. Welcome to Matchday 32 and the business end of the season.

TITLE RACE:

Bayern Munich (71 points, +50 GD)
Borussia Dortmund (69, +34)
RB Leipzig (64, +35)

Bayern were surprisingly held by FC Nürnberg last week and nearly lost to the second-from-bottom side. They missed a chance to have a chance to clinch the title this week. They have a chance again to put some daylight between them and Borussia Dortmund with a home match against bottom side Hannover 96 (more on them later).

Dortmund enter their away match against Werder Bremen (more on them later) without Marco Reus (suspended two matches) and Marius Wolf (suspended three matches ) due to red cards in last week’s debacle against Schalke. Paco Alcacer, the club’s leading scorer, may see his first start in a month.

RB Leipzig still have a mathematical shot at the title (darn that slump before Christmas!). They have already claimed a place in next season’s UEFA Champions League and solidified third place thanks to a 13-match unbeaten streak, including winning their last six. Their title hopes will officially cease if they lose Friday against Mainz or if Bayern matches the result against Hannover. Mainz is safe and secure in mid-table.

BATTLE FOR EUROPE:

Eintracht Frankfurt (54, +23)
Borussia Mönchengladbach (51, +11)
Bayer Leverkusen (51, +8)
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (50, +21)
VfL Wolfsburg (49, +6)
Werder Bremen (46, +7)

Seventh place this season in the Bundesliga is confirmed to go to the Europa League Second Qualifying Round as the DFB Pokal Final involves two teams already qualified for the Champions League (Bayern and Leipzig). Frankfurt still has the matter of Chelsea in this year’s Europa League semfinals and still have two routes of qualification to next year’s Champions League group stage.

The Eagles cling to a three-point lead in fourth and have a major matchup at the BayArena Sunday at Leverkusen. Die Werkself is just three points behind Frankfurt with just Gladbach in between them. It’s either been feast or famine for Leverkusen. Right now, it’s feast as they have followed up three straight losses with three straight wins.

Gladbach have really sputtered in the Ruckrunde and have won just one in their last six and two in their last 11. They host Hoffenheim on Saturday where the Foals have struggled more so than on the road in this Ruckrunde.

Hoffenheim have won five of their last seven, but that seventh match was a 4-1 reverse at home to Hoffemheim to keep them four points out of fourth and with three teams to pass with three to go. Now, that seventh represents a place in Europe, the Sinsheimers are a point clear of eighth in Wolfsburg.

No relegation playoffs this year for Wolfsburg. In fact, Europe is a huge possibility. They have the easiest run-in in terms of the places of the teams they are facing starting with FC Nürnberg on Saturday, and then Stuttgart and Augsburg.

Werder Bremen is four points out of seventh and eight out of fouth. The Green-Whites have the trickiest run-in starting with BVB, then Hoffenheim, and Leipzig to close the season. Bremen have lost back-to-back matches to Bayern and Fortuna and need to regroup to head back north in the table.

SAFE AND SOUND:

Fortuna Dusseldorf (40, -16)
Hertha Berlin (37, -7)
Mainz 05 (36, -15)

BATTLE FOR SURVIVAL

SC Freiburg (32, -16)
FC Augsburg (31, -8)
FC Schalke (30, -18)
VfB Stuttgart (24, -39)
FC Nürnberg (19, -32)
Hannover 96 (18, -40)

From the bottom up, Hannover’s relegation will be confirmed if they get a worse result at Bayern compared to Stuttgart’s result at Hertha Berlin. They are at best going to be in a relegation playoff. A victory against Mainz last week raised hopes a little.

Nürnberg’s relegation will be confirmed if Stuttgart win and Der Club fail to do the same at Wolfsburg. They had a chance to win against Bayern, but a last-minute penalty miss made them the only team in the bottom four to not win last week.

Stuttgart will not be relegated automatically if they defeat Hertha and both Nürnberg and Hannover fail to do the same. However, a loss against the Capital Club, plus Schalke getting at least a point against Augsburg, would confirm that Stuttgart will face at least a relegation playoff.

The Royal Blues can confirm safety with a better result against Augsburg than Stuttgart against Hertha. Their season has already been considered “saved” with victory at Dortmund last week in the Revierderby. Both Augsburg and Freiburg (home to Fortuna) can confirm safety with victories regardless of what other teams do.

BATTLE FOR PROMOTION:

FC Köln (59, +35)
SC Paderborn (54, +27)
FC Union Berlin (53, +19)
Hamburg SV (53, +6)
FC Heidenheim 1846 (49, +8)
FC St. Pauli (48, -5)
Holstein Kiel (46, +9)

The top two in the Zweite will go up automatically while the third place team will enter a playoff against the team third from bottom in the top flight which is a home-and-home encounter.

FC Köln will make an immediate return to the top flight if they defeat Greuther Fuerth on Monday and if both Paderborn and Union Berlin fail to win. However, they are winless in their last four and sacked Markus Anfang after defeat to Dresden two weeks ago. Last week, they fell to Darmstadt.

SC Paderborn are the in-form team at the moment unbeaten in their last six. After back-to-back relegations from 2015 (and nearly a third straight drop), they are looking for back-to-back promotions. However, they are just a point clear in the second automatic place ahead of two teams.

Union Berlin started the season unbeaten in 17, then had another five-match unbeaten streak, but then had a four-match winless streak. That ended last week with a win against Hamburg and they are currently third on goal difference.

Hamburg was in the top two for most of the year, but a six-match winless streak has dropped them to fourth and out of the promotion picture entirely at the moment. Yes, they had a run to the Pokal semis, but victory at home to Ingolstadt is needed to be back on the way for the Dino to restart their top flight clock again.

Heidenheim made it to the quarterfinals of the Pokal, narrowly losing to Bayern, 5-4. Now, they are looking to get back into the promotion race. However, defeat to Sandhausen and victories for Paderborn, Union, and Hamburg will end those hopes. Ditto for St. Pauli as they are away to Dynamo Dresden. Holstein Kiel were in the playoff last season, but fell to Wolfsburg. They need to get lucky every time starting with victory over relegation-threatened Duisburg as they are seven points out of third with four teams to pass.

FIXTURE LISTS (All times CT and on Fox Soccer Matchpass unless stated):

BUNDESLIGA:

Friday, May 3rd:

Mainz vs. RB Leipzig, 1:30pm (FS2)

Saturday, May 4th:

Bayern Munich vs. Hannover 96, 8:30am (FS2)

Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. Hoffenheim, 8:30am

Hertha Berlin vs. VfB Stuttgart, 8:30am

VfL Wolfsburg vs. FC Nürnberg, 8:30am

Werder Bremen vs. Borussia Dortmund, 11:30am (FS2)

Sunday, May 5th:

Schalke vs. FC Augsburg, 6:30am (FS1)