Serie A: Race for Champions League qualification heats up

With Antonio Conte’s Inter steamrolling Serie A since the turn of the year, the race for the Scudetto is all but wrapped up. Below that the fight for European qualification is at its most intense.  Five teams are fighting for the three remaining places. The race is so tight that Napoli, Juventus, and AC Milan have the same points total.  Below Prost examines the contenders run in and predicts who will be playing in the Champions League next season and who will miss out.

Atlanta 68points – Remaining fixtures –Sassuolo (A) , Parma (A), Benevento (H), Genoa (A), Juventus (Coppa Italia Final), AC Milan (H) Form WDWWW

Gian Piero Gasperini’s men continue to delight and excite. The top scoring team in Serie A seized the initiative in the top four battle with a recent 1-0 victory over Juventus.  Sassuolo will provide a tough challenge but after this Atalanta face three teams in the bottom half of the table. Parma are likely to be relegated by then, while Genoa should be safe and have nothing to play for. Win three of these four games and Champions League qualification for a third consecutive year ought to be secured. This would be a fantastic achievement for La Dea cementing them as a powerhouse in Italian football. Second place in Serie A and a Coppa Italia win would be the most successful season in Atalanta’s history.  Prediction 2^nd

Napoli 66points  – Remaining fixtures – Cagliari (H), Spezia (A), Udinese (H), Fiorentina (A), Verona (H) Form WWDWL

Gennaro Gattusso is rumoured to be leaving at the end of the season but he has galvanised Napoli in recent weeks with a valuable point against table topping Inter followed up by a huge 5-2 win over top 6 rivals Lazio. Results elsewhere see Gli Azzurri now sit in the box seat for Champions League qualification. On paper they have the easiest run in. Cagliari and Spezia are fighting for their Serie A lives whilst Udinese, Fiorentina and Verona are stuck in mid-table mediocrity.  Expect Napoli to pick up at least ten points from the remaining fifteen to return to Europe’s elite competition after missing out last season.  Prediction 3^rd

Juventus 66points – Remaining fixtures – Udinese (A), AC Milan (H), Sassuolo (A), Inter (H), Atalanta (Coppa Italia Final), Bologna (A) Form DWLWW

Finishing outside the top four would be a disaster for Juve, whose gamble hiring Andrea Pirlo has not paid off. For all his titles, elegance and plaudits as a player, Pirlo is clearly still learning what it means to be a manager at the top level. This is worrying for I Bianconeri considering their current position and remaining fixtures.  A massive game against AC Milan awaits on May 9^th, which could essentially be a winner takes all clash for fourth place.  Juventus then have a tough trip to eighth place Sassuolo followed by Inter at home. Having likely been crowned champions by then, Antonio Conte’s side and their fans would love nothing more than to deliver a killer blow to their bitter rivals’ Champions League hopes.  The next six games will be the truest test of Pirlo’s fledgling managerial credentials. Winning the Coppa Italia is unlikely to save him, with the rumours of Massimiliano Allegri returning to the Juve bench refusing to go away.   Prediction 5^th

AC Milan 66points – Remaining fixtures – Benevento (H), Juventus (A), Torino D (A), Cagliari (H), Atalanta (A) Form LLWWD

Milan topped the table in January, however maintaining the breakneck pace of their 27-game unbeaten following Serie A’s resumption in June was always going to be a tough ask for the young Rossoneri.  Long term injuries to experienced heads Zlatan Ibrahimovic and Alessio Romagnoli haven’t helped, and Stefano Pioli’s side come into this crucial stretch in bad form. Milan will be looking to beat lowly Benevento comfortably next before a huge game against Juventus. Crucially, Ibrahimovic should be back by then. Win this and Pioli’s side will be in a strong position and will be hoping to secure a top four finish before a tough trip to Atalanta on the final day.  Prediction 4^th

Lazio 61points – Remaining fixtures – Genoa (H), Fiorentina (A), Parma (H), Roma (A), Torino (A), Sassuolo (A) Form WLWWW

Simone Inzaghi’s side have an outside change of gate-crashing the top four with last week’s convincing 3-0 win over AC Milan keeping their hopes alive. A five-point gap and an inferior goal difference to their rivals is a tough handicap to overcome, however all of Lazio’s remaining games are against sides below them in the table and they do have a game in hand. Le Acquile are in great form, winning four out of their past five games with deadly striker Ciro Immobile back in form. The teams above them will drop points, with Milan facing both Juventus and Atalanta in the remaining games. However, Lazio will likely need five wins out of six to secure a back-to-back top four finishes.  Prediction 6^th

Don’t forget……. Roma

Roma are all but eliminated from qualifying for the Champions League via Serie A. But are Italy’s sole remaining representative in this season’s European Club competitions.  Should they overcome Man Utd in the Europa League semi-finals, they will face Arsenal or Villareal in Gdansk on May 26^th for a chance to qualify for the Champions League.