Croatia’s path to Euro final begins with largest obstacle

by Brian Fonseca

Croatia entered Euro 2016 as a dark horse, a team capable of defeating some traditional powerhouse nations en route to making a surprise run deep into the tournament.

After finishing second in its qualifying group behind Italy, the checkerboard-donning nation was expected to succumb to a similar fate in the group stage at the Euro. Croatia landed in Group D along with two-time defending European champions Spain, Turkey and the Czech Republic.

But despite letting a 2-0 lead slip in the final 15 minutes of a 2-2 draw against Czech Republic, the same match in which its fans threw flares and explosives onto the pitch, it managed to finish atop the group thanks largely to a 2-1 upset win over Spain.

Perhaps the most impressive aspect of Croatia’s result against the defending champions was the fact its best player — Real Madrid midfielder Luka Modric — did not play after suffering an injury against the Czechs.

Regarded as the team playing the most polished football in the group stage by numerous pundits across different national allegiances, Croatia’s path to a first ever final at the Euro became considerably easier following its first place finish.

The former Yugoslavian nation landed in the left side of the knockout stage bracket, the opposite end of tournament favorites France, Spain, Italy and Germany. Croatia can only meet one of those sides, and that would be if it reaches the final matchday on July 10.

Though the path could’ve been much rougher, it is by no means a cakewalk. Croatia will face perhaps its biggest challenge until the final in the Round of 16 — Portugal. One of the most talented sides in the competition, the Portuguese finished third in Group F, considered by most to be the ‘weakest’ group at the Euro prior to the tournament kicking off. The Cristiano Ronaldo-led side barely made it out of the group with three draws in three matches, including a thrilling 3-3 tie on the final matchday.

While Portugal hasn’t been able to win any matches, it hasn’t been due to a lack of chances created. The Portuguese lead all nations in the tournament with 69 total attempts on goal, using its second-best 61 percent possession average to carry the momentum of all three of its matches.

Croatia doesn’t trail far in the amount of chances created (50), but it exceeds its opponents in the amount finished. Scoring in all three matches, it has scored 5 goals in 3 matches, with tournament standout Ivan Perisic leading the team with 2, including the game-winner against Spain.

Both Modric and Juventus striker Mario Mandzukic trained Friday but are still in doubt for the match, according to Croatian national team manager Ante Cacic.

“I cannot say if they’re fit to play the full match, the whole 90 minutes,” he said through a translator on Friday, a day ahead of the game in Lens. “Everything looks good and but I will decide tomorrow before the match.”

Missing two of its best players could be a big blow to Croatia’s aspirations of a historic tournament performance, but the drop in talent may not be too bad. Mateo Kovacic, Modric’s teammate in Madrid, is likely to take his spot alongside Barcelona’s Ivan Rakitic.

Regardless of who plays tomorrow, Cacic is expecting a strong effort from his side as it hopes to improve on its appearance at the Euros in 2008, where it reached the quarterfinals before losing to tournament Cinderella’s Turkey in a penalty shootout.

In order to do that, he believes the most important thing is preventing Ronaldo from building on his two goal, one assist performance against Hungary three days prior.

“We have to defend well against Portugal,” Cacic said. “This is a team with great individual qualities. Of course, Ronaldo is their main player. So what we have to do tomorrow is not to allow them to show how strong he is. We have to limit Cristiano Ronaldo.”

Follow Brian Fonseca on Twitter @briannnnf for updates on Euro 2016.