Richard Fleming: Is the EPL boring compared to other leagues?

by Richard Fleming

Former Liverpool, Tottenham and Fulham midfielder Danny Murphy has depressingly stated that this coming season’s Premier League title chase will be a ‘two-horse race’, between defending champions Chelsea and Manchester City.

If we’re honest, the Premier League may often be afforded the label of the ‘world’s most exciting league’, but it’s also one of the more predictable. In days gone by, there were the ‘haves’ and the ‘have-nots’. It was a league of two halves – those battling for glory and those fighting for survival.

But, since huge sums of money have flooded the Premier League and UEFA Champions League, those consistently securing a spot in the top four of the former – and thereby qualifying for the lucrative latter – have pulled further and further from the rest.

The top four, certainly for the foreseeable future, are likely to be Chelsea, Manchester United, Manchester City and Arsenal. There may be an occasional year when a team such as Liverpool or Tottenham manages to break the monotony, but their lot will likely be a decent FA Cup run while settling for European football’s second tier competition, the UEFA Europa League.

A third tier within the Premier League could include an Everton, Newcastle – under new manager Steve McClaren – and Southampton. There’s always a surprise package, as well, such as a Swansea City or Sunderland.

And then it’s a case of whether the three coming up from The Championship will buck the trend and stick around in the top tier for more than a season. Already, AFC Bournemouth are red-hot tips for an immediate return to the division below. Norwich are considered the newcomers with the best chance of survival. Watford make up the three new names in the Premier League.

But this got me thinking. Is the Premier League alone in its inevitability? Certainly it’s one of the world’s more established leagues, and with that comes some semblance of order. The same can be said for La Liga, Serie A, the German Bundesliga and, perhaps, Ligue 1 in France. When choosing domestic champions, if you opt for Barcelona or Real Madrid, Juventus or Milan, Bayern Munich or Schalke 04, Paris St. Germain or Lyon you’d not go too far wrong.

Some would suggest that money has destroyed the competitive element of the respective leagues. Those same folk would then maybe point to Major League Soccer has a beacon of hope and, no doubt – in conversation – you’d hear the word ‘parity’ bandied about.

Before we all wonder whether MLS should push the global game to take on its model, let’s first consider this. How long does it take a league to find its level? How long before sport’s ‘natural selection’ kicks in?

MLS has crowned 19 champions. In that time there has been nine different winners. Compare that to the first 19 years of other leagues, when clubs came and went, decisions dictated dominance, investment differed and fate played a part.

I’ve taken the five top leagues in Europe, plus Mexico, and the results are as follows for the number of different champions in the first 19 years.

France (11), Germany (10), Mexico (10), England (8), Spain (7) and Italy (6).

So, as you can see from those figures, fledgling leagues all enjoy an element of parity, as the clubs all start from the same point, and have the same opportunities available to them. Over time, though, a pattern tends to emerge, due to many factors, and that is what we now note in the Premier League and others.

And it is sure to be something we will surely see in MLS. LA Galaxy have claimed three of the last four MLS Cups, and are many people’s tip for the title again this year. Seattle Sounders FC will land the elusive prize sometime soon, and I suspect they will be eyeing success for a while yet. With the backing they have, it won’t be long before NYCFC become perennial contenders, while Toronto FC – heavy investors the past few years – must surely get it right eventually.

In other words, let us not get too down-in-the-mouth with Murphy’s prediction. And let us not believe that parity lasts forever. It’s the way of the world. Sport, as with mankind, evolves and eventually it becomes a survival of the fittest.