WWC 2015 CONCACAF Qualifying Final Four Preview

By Jeff Lageson,

Jeff is a long time youth, high school, and college soccer assistant coach, from the Great Soccer State of Washington

The USWNT, Costa Rica, Mexico, and Trinidad & Tobago can all qualify for FIFA Women’s World Cup 2015 in Canada this weekend. So, even though these are the final four teams in the CONCACAF Women’s World Cup Qualifying tournament, the results for winning the tournament are not actually what truly matters this weekend. With three of the four guaranteed a spot at the tourney in Canada, in the end, it is just don’t be the fourth place team that actually matters, and even then that might still turn out okay since the fourth place team can still qualify by winning a series over Ecuador.

Given that this is tournament format and not a group format every game has different  consequences.  Being 3-0-0 would be like a huge cushion for the USA in a hexagonal group as it moves forward and yet the USWNT can have five bad minutes and not qualify on Friday, when in a group format it would be a different story, just alter them in the standings.  Then, there is suddenly a third place game to qualify.  Since they do this tourney in CONCACAF instead of groups like in UEFA it creates an interesting edge to the later games. As a coach I would hate the risk after winning so much to get there, but the edge my team would need to keep would be nice to have them work with and can be a good base to work from later.

Imagine the elation in the CR and TRI locker rooms, that they can clinch a WC berth without worrying about a game with the USA? The bullet they are dodging by avoiding the third place game, with its must win or be the 4th place team and have to play the play in game, is simply crazy. Both can still qualify, but one has a much, much different road to drive down.

Also, imagine if the USA were to slip up against Mexico. Then, if you are CR or TRI you may as well pack for Ecuador, because that would be one pissed off team in the third place game.  I think the USA is playing too well, the ball movement has been great (yes, the TRI goalie played out of her mind in the first game), but the USA still owned that game.  Mexico, has nothing to lose playing forward in the semi, since the net under them is so broad.  It will be shocking if Mexico bunker down without a lead or unless the game is tied late and they decide to play for penalties.

The USWNT had the luxury of depth in the offense, and it turns out that due to injury that depth is exactly what is needed.  Losing an Alex Morgan caliber of player should be difficult for any team to absorb.  But given that it means players like Abby Wambach,  Christen Press, Tobin Heath, and Sydney Leroux share more minutes, in truth the lose will hardly be felt.  Not many coaching staffs can be dealt that kind of loss, and yet turn to the bench and see the caliber of just any One of these world class players, waiting to play.

In the end The USWNT will qualify, likely on Friday over Mexico.  Costa Rica is probably the better team over TRI, but the emotion a team like TRI is playing with given where they came from at the start of the tournament makes them a dangerous team in an elimination game. Mexico probably has the emotional edge going into a third place game on Sunday since they probably expect to be playing in it any ways.  I worry for a team like TRI if they have to go into the Ecuador series given all the resource issues and emotions that could come from coming so close in spite of it.

My Prediction is USA takes the tourney, Costa Rica qualifies as runner up, Mexico takes TRI, and TRI faces Ecuador later as the fourth place team.