Kicking the Numbers: Visiting our xG dashboards

Back in September, we introduced a pair of dashboards exploring expected goals (xG) for the German Bundesliga and the English Premier League that we will use for the 2025-26 season. For the uninitiated, expected goals (xG) is a performance metric used to evaluate team and player performances. For the sake of simplicity, we’ll focus on team performance. It can represent the probability of a scoring opportunity that may result in a goal. Each chance is rated on a scale from 0 to 1.

As we are currently on the international break for November, let’s explore what we have seen so far.

In the Bundesliga, and to the shock of no one, Bayern Munich is top of the table. No one has a higher xG for per game (2.48) and no one has a lower xG against (0.69). It’s the same for actual goals per game (3.50) and actual goals against (0.60). Indeed, Bayern are outperforming their xG for (xGF) by over a goal per game.

In second place in terms of performance vs. xG is Eintracht Frankfurt, who on average has scored .80 more goals than they have been expected to score (2.30 actual goals per game vs. 1.50 xG for per game). Yet, one of the reasons they are currently seventh in the actual table is because they are underperforming against their xG against (xGA) by nearly half a goal per game which is bottom.

On our “Expected Results” tab, we examine how teams are either exceeding or falling below expectations. We include the wrinkle that if the margin of xG difference between the teams is .25 or less, then we are expecting this match to end in a draw. So far, FC Köln were expected to net just eight points after ten matches and be 15th in the table, but they currently have 14 points and are tenth. On the other side, we expected Borussia Mönchengladbach to have 14 points and be ninth. After a slow start, they are climbing the table and are on nine points in 12th. AS for now, though, the question is still, “Can anyone catch Bayern?” Right now, that answer appears to be ‘no’ ten matches in.

We fly on over to the Premier League. And yes, most viewing is bad for fans of Wolverhampton Wanderers (disclosure: editor is a Wolves fan as well). Their xG for per game is third worst ahead of Aston Villa and Burnley. Their average xG against per match isn’t that bad at 1.25 per match. But seeing as no one has fewer actual goals and that no one has allowed more goals than Wolves, it is not surprising to see that Wolves has underperformed their xG for (third worst in the EPL) and have underperformed their xGA by over a goal per match which is bottom by a distance.

Our strangest case is Aston Villa. If matches were determined by xG, Villa would just have seven points and be second from bottom (even Wolves were expected to pick up eight after 11 matches!). The xG only favored them against Fulham and Burnley (both were wins). Yet, they are sixth in the table on 18 points. We checked the xG margins for matches involving Villa. Apart from an expected draw (a match they actually lost), the closest margin was 0.34 against Sunderland (actual draw). It also should be mentioned that Aston Villa is outperforming their xGA by half a goal per match.

Meanwhile, the xG scoreboard expected Burnley to have just one point after eleven matches. They have ten and are in 17th out of the drop zone at the moment. So Burnley and Villa have been relative outliers against their expected performance when it comes to the table in the Premier League.

That’s what we have so far at the November international break. We will look at this again perhaps around the New Year around the weekend of FA Cup Third Round and just as the Winter Break in the Bundesliga ends. Stay tuned!