Croatia and Spain meet in Copenhagen to battle it out for a quarter-final spot

Spain will be looking to capitalise on the confidence created in their 5-0 demolition of Slovakia, but Croatia will be hoping to meet the more goal-shy side seen earlier in the group stage.

The age of Croatia’s squad was perhaps the most common talking point surrounding their group D games. Until they comprehensively knocked Scotland out of the tournament with a 3-1 victory at Hampden Park last Tuesday, it seemed as if the energetic, powerful side that had reached the 2018 World Cup final had almost regressed into a more sluggish, less potent side.

Yet it was the Croatia of old who ultimately qualified for the Round of 16. A confident display, spearheaded by Luka Modric, Mateo Kovacic, Ivan Perisic and Niko Vlasic, ensured that Vatreni progressed beyond the group stage.

When times get tough, the best players step up. That’s undoubtedly what Modric, especially, did against Scotland. A beautiful curling strike from the midfielder put Croatia 2-1 up, and it was his corner that found Perisic’s head to wrap up qualification just before the 80th minute at Hampden Park.

Much like Croatia, Spain struggled to get into gear in their opening two group stage matches. Despite dominating in both possession and chances created against Sweden (0-0) and Poland (1-1), they were impotent in front of goal. In fact, the Spaniards can boast a higher xG (expected goals) tally than any other side in the group stage, with their figure sitting at 8.8, but goalscoring in reality seemed to be a big issue.

Alvaro Morata further condemned his reputation with a serious of rather awful misses, and despite Gerard Moreno bringing a different dynamic to the front three, he left the group stage with no goals and one penalty miss on his record.

But in their final group game against Slovakia, Spain really turned on the style. Luis Enrique seems to favour a slightly more forward-thinking approach than some of his predecessors, and for those ninety minutes at least, La Roja looked much more like the world-beaters that dominated the international stage in the late 2000s/early 2010s, smashing five past Martin Dubravka (with a little help from the Slovakian goalkeeper himself) to guarantee qualification.

Both Croatia and Spain’s inconsistent form in the group stage means that it’s difficult to predict exactly which version of each side will turn up at the Parken Stadium on Monday evening. Croatia seemed to tire against England’s more patient approach in their opening group game, and Spain take a similar approach which may play in the ‘away’ side’s favour.

Luis Enrique must be credited for instilling a more forward-thinking attitude into his Spaniards, but they’ve simply missed too many big chances to take the amount they create for granted. Croatia are a resolute side – sharp in attack and strong at the back – so should not be underestimated.

The History

This isn’t the first time that Croatia and Spain have met in the knockout rounds of a EUROs tournament. In Spain’s winning 2012 campaign, the sides met at this very stage. Spain ran out victors thanks to a late Jesus Navas winner, and, as they say, the rest is history.

In 2016, the sides met in the group stage. It was Croatia who took the bragging rights this time, condemning Spain to second and forcing them to play Italy in the Round of 16. Spain would make the short trip back over the Pyrenees after the Italy tie, surrounded by a very negative media storm.

Funnily enough, it was Spain who inflicted Croatia’s worst ever defeat on them. In September 2018, La Roja beat Vatreni 6-0 in a Nations League fixture at Elche’s Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero. However, only one Spain player started in that match as well as in the 5-0 thrashing of Slovakia earlier this week: Sergio Busquets. There have been extensive changes in Spain’s camp since that fixture.

Team News

Croatia’s most notable absentee is Ivan Perisic who has tested positive for Coronavirus. It’s likely that AC Milan’s Ante Rebic will replace him, with Croatia expected to continue in the 4-3-3 formation that they deployed in the group stage. Central defender Dejan Lovren is suspended and will also miss out; it’s thought that Atletico Madrid’s Sime Vrsaljko will step into his spot.

Spain don’t have any injuries to contend with, although several players are one match away from booking suspensions. That being said, Enrique could well pick the same team that started against Slovakia.

The Verdict

As previously stated, it’s difficult to predict, firstly, which version of each side will turn up to Monday’s game and, secondly, who will progress to the quarter-finals. Both Croatia and Spain have blown hot and cold so far.

“A difficult match awaits us. Spain are a great team that love possession and love to play their game. It will be important for us to try to have the ball as much as possible, to take away what they love the most.” – Mateo Kovacic via UEFA

However, Spain’s scintillating showing against Slovakia is hard to ignore. Croatia were impressive against a poor Scotland side, but momentum will surely be building in the Spain camp and it’s difficult to pretend that Spain’s youthful, more exuberant side couldn’t cause serious problems for Croatia.

Although there are no guarantees that La Roja will go all the way in this summer’s tournament, to go out at this stage would be yet another failure for Spain on the international stage, in keeping with their underwhelming tournament performances since 2014.

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