Euro 2020 permutations: what is required for qualification

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As the second round of group stage matches have been completed, there has been further clarity on which teams will advance to the knockout stage.

That being said. with the complication of the four best third-placed finishers also qualifying, there will still be plenty of twists and turns to come with fans getting the calculators out to check on their team’s progress.

Group A

Italy were the first nation to book their place in the last 16 and can confirm top spot with a draw against Wales in Rome. A point would also be enough to guarantee Welsh progression although even a defeat is unlikely to hinder Robert Page’s side.

From the other match, Switzerland and Turkey know only a win will suffice if they’re to stand any chance of going further in the tournament. Switzerland will secure third place with a win and four points should be enough to become one of those best third-placed sides. Second place could still belong to the Swiss although it would require a five-goal swing between themselves and Wales.

Turkey can finish third with a win although their goose looks cooked due to the poor goal difference. Those late goals from Lorenzo Insigne and Connor Roberts could prove very costly. Even if that comes to pass, three points may not be enough anyway.

Group B

Belgium joined Italy in the knockout stages on Thursday and a point against Finland will guarantee top spot.

The Finn’s will be aiming for at least a point to try and gain progress in their first ever European Championships while Russia know any positive result from their game in Copenhagen will see them finish in the top three, with four points looking good for advancing.

Denmark must beat Russia to stand any chance of going through. Should they, Russia and Finland all finish level on points it will come down to a mini-league between all three with goal difference proving crucial.

Group C

The clearest group to decipher by a considerable distance. The Netherlands play North Macedonia in the only completely dead-rubber in the tournament. The Dutch have already clinched top spot while North Macedonia will bow out of their first major tournament after suffering defeats in their opening two games.

Ukraine and Austria meet in Bucharest where a draw will see Ukraine go through in second place and leave Austria working out if four points and a goal difference of zero will see them through. A win for either side would ensure qualification.

Group D

England and Czech Republic meet at Wembley where a point will see both teams progress with the Czechs taking first place. England must win to finish top.

Scotland and Croatia meet in the other Group D encounter with both teams needing a win to stand any chance of qualification. Scotland could finish second should England lose and Scotland win by two goals. Likewise for Croatia, if they were to win by a goal and Czech Republic were to lose by three, Croatia would qualify in second.

A draw would see both sides bow out.

Group E

Sweden are in the driving seat in Group E and a point in Saint Petersburg against Poland would ensure Scandinavian progression to the last 16. Poland have given themselves a fighting chance after drawing with Spain so a win here would see them finish above the Swedes and secure a place in the next round.

Spain host Slovakia in the other match in this group and probably need to win to advance. A draw may be enough but three points is looking very edgy in terms of being enough to secure one of the best third-placed slots. Even at that, a draw coupled with a Poland win would knock Luis Enrique’s men out.

A win for Slovakia would definitely ensure their progression while a draw could possibly be enough.

Group F

Hungary must win against Germany in Munich to stand any chance of making it through while the Germans know a win for them will guarantee a further match at these championships. A draw would also likely be enough for Joachim Loew’s men.

France only need a point against Portugal in a repeat of the Euro 2016 final to advance with the draw probably suiting Portugal also, owing to their positive goal difference.

The oddity in this group is that they will be the final group games played meaning it will be known what is required to qualify in third place. France may push for the win knowing it could knock out one of the major contenders for the trophy.

Third place

This is where it all gets a little bit messy. Four points looks as though it should be enough to get through though there are scenarios where multiple teams finish on four points and some are unlucky enough that they must pack their bags and go home. For example, Switzerland, Austria, Finland, Scotland, Slovakia and Portugal could all end up locked on four points so goal difference could have a crucial role to play.

Three points would ensure some very nervous glances at the table to see if it would be enough to scrape through. It is an advantage for teams in Groups E and F as they will know exactly what they need when their matches come around.

With so little already decided, the tournament is beautifully poised for a few dramatic finishes on the final matchday. When the dust settles on that, we will see the path for the knockout stages.

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