Only a sturdy Tangerine wall stands between Oxford United and a Wembley return

Had you have offered Oxford United a place in the League One play-offs this season in the immediate aftermath of defeat in last year’s final against Wycombe Wanderers, they probably would have taken it.

If you had offered it to them at the start of December, when they were in the third tier relegation zone after a miserable start to the campaign that included defeat to Swindon in the A420 derby for the first time since 2001, they almost certainly would have taken it.

And even though last Sunday’s 4-0 beating of Burton Albion made their top-six finish feel like something of a formality, there can be little doubt that players, staff and supporters alike would have been willing to make a deal with the devil ahead of kick-off as their success was only made possible thanks to Portsmouth’s final day defeat to Accrington.

Now that the post-season has begun, everything that has taken place in the previous nine months is almost an irrelevance with Oxford now just three games away from returning to the second tier of English football after two decades spent falling all the way down to the Conference before steadily climbing their way back up.

This campaign has swung violently from the absurd to the unbelievable, and the nine-day break between the last game of the regular season and the first leg of their semi-final against Blackpool on Tuesday evening has arguably been the most time Karl Robinson’s side has had to relax since before their previous play-off appearance.

The thumping of Burton, the most recent victory of a run of five wins in the Yellows last six games, was a further example of the success Oxford have had since Robinson, in his own words, “took the handbrake off”.

The Yellows scored 20 goals in those six games as a consequence of the head coach’s aggressive team selections. Attacking players James Henry and Mark Sykes have been used in central midfield and forwards Olamide Shodipo and Eliot Lee given license to focus almost exclusively on getting into areas where they can hurt the opposition as Robinson adopted an all or nothing approach for the run-in.

Whilst it was this late burst that secured a play-off place, no team in League One picked up more points than Oxford since the start of their club-record winning run in December, with recent form only confirming that Robinson has one of the most impressive groups of players outside of the Championship.

Despite this, their record against fellow top half sides was a point of concern throughout the campaign, and they failed to beat Blackpool across the two meetings with the Tangerines in the regular season.

Neil Critchley’s side secured a comfortable 2-0 win at the Kassam Stadium in March in what seemed to be an indicator that Oxford were not at the same level as fellow top-six hopefuls. Set-piece goals from Kenny Dougall and Dan Ballard gave the visitors a half-time lead they never threatened to relinquish, and the nature of the defeat will no doubt be a concern for Robinson ahead of Tuesday’s fixture.

However, he will be hoping that the return of supporters to the Kassam can help give his players an advantage. The club have confirmed that every season-ticket holder who applied to attend Oxford’s first fixture since Covid restrictions have been loosened has been allocated a seat, meaning it will be League One’s biggest crowd since the season was suspended in March 2020.

“The biggest excitement is that there will be fans back in the ground to watch us play. There are pictures all around the training ground and stadium of players celebrating with fans and they are a massive part of this football club; a real driver of this team’s success.

“If any kids go in to school wearing their Oxford shirt tomorrow and get told off then that teacher needs to be named and shamed! You should be able to go to school or work ready to come straight to the ground. It’s an early kick-off!

“Come and fill the ground with yellow. Fill it with the frustration of not being here for a year, fill it with the love you have for the team. If players make mistakes then embrace that too and keep positive and keep backing them.”

– Oxford United Head Coach Karl Robinson speaking to the club website

A further boost is that Brandon Barker is likely to be fit to play after sitting out the final day win due to an issue with his knee, although Sam Long’s availability is still in question after he was forced off against Burton with a hamstring injury and Robinson will again be absent from the home dugout as he continues to serve a touchline ban.

Even though the feeling around Oxford is understandably positive, Blackpool represent formidable opposition for them to overcome before dreams of a Wembley return can evolve into anything more tangible.

Not only have the Tangerines remained unbeaten against the Yellows this season, but since the end of October, they have effectively been in automatic promotion form and it is only a sluggish start to Head Coach Critchley’s first full campaign in charge prevented them pushing Hull and Peterborough all the way for a place in the top two.

“You can take things from the games you’ve played against each other this season, but we were speaking about this as a staff and it’s like you know that they know that they know that you know.

“There’s so much that can happen in these games that you can get yourself in a muddle by overthinking things.

“Both sets of players and staff, we know each other. Is that an advantage or a disadvantage? We shall see.”

– Blackpool Head Coach Neil Critchley speaking to The Blackpool Gazette

The former Liverpool youth coach has impressed thanks to his ability to change between tactical systems as the season has progressed, whilst also engineering a platform that allows exciting attacking players Jerry Yates, Ellis Simms and Sulley Kaikai to thrive.

His most notable achievement has been developing Blackpool into the strongest defence in League One though. Despite rarely being able to select the same defenders from one game to the next due to a combination of injuries, international call-ups and suspensions, Critchley’s side conceded just 30 goals across their 46 league games.

Oxford finished as the league’s top-scorers outside of the top two, but Blackpool’s stingy backline will relish the opportunity to keep them quiet across the two legs of the semi-final, and the fact that the Seasiders have lost just four games since the turn of the year means they are unlikely to be intimidated by the Yellows’ strong end to the campaign.

A factor of questionable importance is Blackpool’s impressive record in the play-offs. They have gone on to win promotion in five of their eight post-season adventures, making them the most successful side in play-off history, and should they secure a positive result on Tuesday night at the Kassam they could be well on the way to improving that record further.

The agony of last year’s Wembley defeat has seen Oxford’s impressive end to the season take on the guise of a revenge mission in the eyes of many, and even though they now face an opponent that both defends resolutely and is exceptionally consistent, the play-offs are so often decided by factors that cannot be explained by either the form book or the league table.

With a second chance to complete a second tier return on the horizon, and over 3,000 fans willing them on after being starved of live football for more than a year, can the Yellows harness the frustration that overshadowed the beginning of their campaign to overcome daunting opponents? Or will next season begin with a similar level of disappointment at the front of their minds?

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