Aston Villa’s xG transformation

Expected goals is becoming prominent in the modern game, but what does it suggest about Aston Villa?

Expected goals (xG) is a statistical measurement which aims to quantify the quality of the goalscoring chances teams have created and the probability of scoring them. In modern day sports, data analytics is becoming more prominent by the day and xG is a part of this, with the likes of Sky Sports now using the statistic.

The measure simply suggests whether or not a goal had a high probability of going in, therefore you could relate a team’s xG statistics to demonstrating if they have been clinical in their finishing or unlucky not to score more. For Aston Villa the xG statistics from this season in comparison to the last can outline just how much of a transformed side they are.

As the graphic below shows, in 55% of Aston Villa’s wins in the 2019/20 season, they had less xG than their opponent. This indicates that Villa were somewhat lucky to win these games as their opponent, statistically speaking, should have scored more than them.

Graphic: @pgr_analytics Data Sourced: Understat

The only wins where Villa had greater xG than their opponents were Norwich City at home, Brighton, Newcastle and Crystal Palace. Expected goals will not decide games as football is largely a game based on luck, however it does indicate the performance of a team. If a team is regularly outscoring their opponents in xG it indicates that they are outplaying and dominating the game.

These figures are a stark contrast to the 2020/21 Aston Villa team. As the graph below shows, in 75% of Villa’s 12 wins, they have outscored their opponents and have been deserving of all three points. The only games in which Villa won and were outscored in xG were Sheffield United, Southampton and Leeds.

Graphic: @pgr_analytics
Date Sourced: Understat

This outlines how Villa have transformed from a side being outplayed and grinding out results, to a dominant team that are deserving of their place in this league and their success so far.

The differential from the amount of goals a team has scored and the amount of xG they have accumulated can also indicate weaknesses in their team such as a lack of a clinical finisher, or if they have low xG they may need to invest in creative players.

For example, Tottenham have an expected goals value of 32.8 xG, but have scored 41 goals. They have clinical finishers in Harry Kane and Heung Min Son and they bury any chance they get even if it has a low probability of going in.

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On the opposite end, Brighton have an expected goals value of 37.7 xG but have only scored 25 goals. They lack a clinical finisher and it has severely hindered them this season as they have outplayed the majority of teams but do not have that cutting edge.

Aston Villa have an expected goals value of 36.6 xG and have scored 37 goals. They have been clinical with chances they have created and have been deserving of every goal scored. Similar to last season where they created 40.1 xG for the entire season and scored 40 goals. The development is clear, Villa have almost surpassed last season values and we are only 24 games in.

Dean Smith has developed this squad into an extremely competitive team. Players have settled such as Matt Targett, Douglas Luiz and Anwar El Ghazi. As well as adding genuine quality in the form of Emiliano Martinez and Ollie Watkins.

Using expected goals, we can see just how exciting this squad is. It outlines the astronomical rise of them in this current season and how much progress has been made in such a short amount of time.