Southampton are enduring the worst run in their Premier League history. So what happens now?

You get the feeling Southampton have reached a seminal point in their season.

Perhaps even in the tenure of Ralph Hasenhuttl and this current Saints vintage.

Defeat at Leeds was the eighth straight game without victory, having just yielded one point in that time. The general mood has transformed from ecstasy to agony and the walls are starting to hauntingly cave in. All during the most intense, unforgiving season in Premier League history.

Afterwards, Ralph Hasenhuttl was in categorical agreement that something needs to change if an overhaul in fortune, performance and most pertinently, results, will transpire. Confidence is low, form has vanished and discernible problems are being laid bare at both ends of the pitch.

Before this writer begins to opine potential theories to help fix the permeating rot, we can all acknowledge the caveats the players have had to deal with. Injuries, VAR, COVID-19 etc – you get the gist. I’m sure you’re even bored of hearing about all those by now.

While those are understandable and rational mitigating cirustmances , they should not be allowed to paper over every crack. The fact of the matter is each cohort within this squad is looking downtrodden, functionless and quite frankly, sorry for themselves.

So with all that being said, how do Southampton salvage their season and halt their worst form of the modern footballing era?

A pressing refrain

The first modification that might be worth thinking about is a refinement of their pressing game. Though this brand of football has become synonymous with Southampton, there is ample evidence to suggest a slightly nuanced approach to their all-action, highly layered pressing manoeuvres could work.

This is not to say that Southampton should not apply pressure anymore, nor is it to drop so far back you’re practically in the Chapel Stand. While football can tend to be viewed through the colour prism of black or white, there are indeed further pigments. Just because a team doesn’t choose to enforce a kamikaze press, it doesn’t necessarily mean they are parking the bus.

To explain where Saints should fall under this umbrella of footballing colour, in the nicest possible way, they should find a place somewhere in the middle of those two colours; seek refuge in some sort of grey.

Refraining from pressing at every waking hour may help establish a defensive base, the theory being that fortifying those defensive walls will provide the starting platform for all those extra layers to eventually be added back again.

A tighter shape, where Southampton are more condensed in structure, would help reduce the swelling concern of the midfield becoming overloaded and exploited upon transition. Shortening the distance between the deepest and the highest outfield players – which is usually the two centre-backs and two forwards – would alleviate the physical demands placed on the two central midfielders, who incidentally are showing signs of fading.

Against Chelsea, Saints’ midfield duo struggled to implement the pressing triggers and instead got counter-pressed by Thomas Tuchel

Take the entirety of the second half against Leeds as the case in point. After going 1-0 up, Leeds seize upon a ball turnover in the middle of the park. Saints have committed a host of bodies forward, already displaying a sense of desperation despite there still being plenty of time left in the game.

In the image below, makeshift right-back Jan Bednarek gets his angles wrong as old habits die hard (in-fact, if the Pole was playing centre-back, that would be the ideal position) and is too narrow. This means Raphinha has got a clear route to the byline.

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The winger’s cut-back cross is behind the retreating Saints back-line and picks out Diego Llorente, having strode forward from defence. Note how Saints’ two centre midfielders, Oriol Romeu and James Ward-Prowse, who both should be in the area between the six-yard box and 18-yard box, are behind four white shirts. Fortunately for the visitors, Alex McCarthy makes a sharp save to rescue the situation.

A similar pattern develops minutes later, but this one proves costly. Once again, Southampton’s midfield pairing have been overwhelmed by a flock of Leeds shirts charging forward after another ball turnover in the attacking half.

Both Bednarek and Jannik Vestergaard rightly drop off and opt to contend with the first wave of runs from Patrick Bamford and Raphinha. The delay should give both Ward-Prowse and Stuart Armstrong – who replaced an injured Romeu – enough time to make recovery runs and apply pressure on the ball.

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But due to the distance being so extensive to cover, particularly in such a short period of time, they fail to track the danger and again, the cut-back pass proves the most conducive. Stuart Dallas now has the time and space to take two extra touches before shooting past McCarthy. Pay attention to how far away Ward-Prowse is away from exerting pressure, while Armstrong cannot be found in the picture.

It is true 19 of the 20 teams in the league are pressing less than last season, with Aston Villa the only exception. Southampton, perhaps the team whose system is more dependent on this way of playing than any other, have also declined dramatically. The enduring malaise should have been expected though; a small squad, with injuries and a congested fixture schedule was always going to leave them vulnerable.

Another reason for reigning in the perpetual motion of pressing is the key absence of Kyle Walker-Peters and now Romeu. As seen in the example below, dropping a little deeper will allow whoever the full-back is to have more protection than what Bednarek got against Leeds.

In the case of Romeu, who so often is Hasenhuttl’s central instigator for counter-pressing, it is essential that the player who replaces him, let’s say Alex Jankewitz, is afforded protection from being overloaded by opposition numbers.

It’s highly unlikely Jankewitz would be able to fit seamlessly into the position and carry the same burden of pressing duties. Therefore, sitting more compact and choosing when to press and when to hold may provide Jankewitz, or any other midfielder, more team-mates in closer proximity.

Employing a middle block

With Hasenhuttl’s squad being decimated by injury in just about every position on the field, the Austrian’s common solution has been to employ a high block when opposition teams have the ball in their own third. But once a couple of passes have been made and the other team have drawn the sting out of Saints’ initial urgency, Hasenhuttl orders his men to retreat into a middle block.

A middle block is when the two forwards narrow and simultaneously drop a few yards deeper, using the centre circle as a marker to maintain their whereabouts. While the strikers go deeper, the backline stays roughly the same, thereby shortening the vertical gap between attack and defence.

Not only does this method conserve energy, but can also be effective against teams trying to play through the thirds, as Saints have now become more compact in their shape.

An example of Saints utilising a middle block – notice how close-knit the front six are. This helped restrict Chelsea’s goalscoring opportunities

The issue with this though, as Hasenhuttl has so often damned, is they haven’t always had the adequate replacements to keep the side’s power charged into the latter stages of games. In basic terms, the lack of viable options on the bench has meant although Saints continue with the same endeavour to make tackles high up the pitch, they do not possess the same vigour or drive they had in the opening periods of a match.

This could be a significant reason attributed to the amount of points lost from winning positions, as opposing sides have now started to recognise Saints’ visible fatigue and the increasing incidences of unsynchronised pressing routines that develop as a game wears on. This often results in teams, such as Wolves’ come from behind victory at St Mary’s, finding it easier to play their way through the central thirds.

Quicker, more astute substitutions

To combat Saints becoming more frail and sapped of energy for every passing minute that goes by, they need to make quicker, shrewder substitutions.

With Southampton finding it difficult to break teams down, the significance of winning turnovers in dangerous areas has become even more illuminating. In order for Saints to become a successful, ball suffocating team once more, they need each player at maximum intensity, well-versed in the out of possession choreography.

Therefore, it is highly critical that when players do enter centre stage and come off the bench, they are ready to carry out the requisite game-plan.Bringing a player earlier on might provide the sufficient adjustment time to understand the oscillating rhythms of a match and allow them to make a impact on it.

Introducing a player, which is most likely going to be a young, impressionable one from the youth set-up, from the 75th minute onwards can make it extremely difficult for that substitute to become attuned or experienced enough to know what to do, particularly in such a nuanced 4-2-2-2 system like Hasenhuttl’s.

More direct football

No one quite expected Southampton to have transformed into such a ball dominant team this season. But as Prost International has alluded to before, teams have cottoned onto it. Saints are now finding it more taxing to impose themselves in key areas, like the attacking third.

While it will be a certainly more rudimentary approach, returning to basics and returning to the strengths of last season will make this current structure less predictable. And for a defence that is shorn of confidence, there will be a reduced importance placed on them starting attacks through acute, risk-taking passes.

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Playing longer and into higher areas will give Southampton a higher frequency of opportunities to employ their press at the correct time and in areas which will be more effective. The likes of Danny Ings and Stuart Armstrong have shown a natural propensity to pounce upon loose balls and utilise them in key areas. Giving them more opportunities to play to their strengths could work wonders for their state of confidence.

Wing-backs in possession

If Jan Bednarek will continue at right-back or there is further injury to Walker-Peters or Ryan Bertrand, adopting a wing-back system whilst in possession could supply another scope for improvement. As so evidently witnessed at Elland Road, the absence of Walker-Peters has caused Saints to funnel near enough every attack down the left hand channel, with Bertrand hustling up and down to provide a perpetual outlet.

After early success, Leeds and Marcelo Bielsa got to grips with Saints’ one and only plan. With Jan Bednarek tucking in instead of supplying width on the opposing side, Southampton’s lopsided method soon became rather futile.

Having a player who can hug the touchline, perhaps Stuart Armstrong or Moussa Djenepo, while Bednarek moonlights as a third centre-back, will allow the slant of Saints’ attack to have more variety. This, in turn, would also have knock-on benefits out of possession, as a wing-back would enable Bednarek to stay as an extra body in defence and help safeguard the threat of a counter-attack following a loss of possession.

The undervalued importance of a fresh face

Forget systems, tactical tweaks or any other richly patterned alteration you suggest Hasenhuttl should endow. Sometimes, good old fashioned simplicity can take centre stage. For all the issues encompassing this current group of players, one fresh face change may just do the trick.

Introducing a player who hasn’t been consumed by the scars of the treacherous winter period could be the quick-fix answer to revitalise a wilting group. Whether that’s the innocence of youth or bringing a player in from the periphery who hasn’t had their mood deterred, might be able to enter the fray and become the kindred spirit that others can gravitate towards.

Nathan Tella has shown early indications he could be the solution to help solve the general malaise, while Fraser Forster’s serene return from the wilderness might also come in handy. The likes of Jankewitz and Caleb Watts have got the technical aptitude to take their chance if awarded to them, too.

Something needs to change

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Ralph Hasenhuttl is a man who is continually looking to adapt and adjust a system. He is not one to settle or as Albert Einstein once observed, to do the same thing over and over again and expect different results. After what has transpired in recent weeks, changes need to be made but not ones that could damage a philosophy that has been emboldened and sharpened overtime – that would be playing with fire.

But tweaking some aspects would help a flailing team trapped within a crisis of confidence find their feet again. The playbook is not being ripped up nor hastily rewritten, it is just in the process of having a couple of minor alterations.

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