There are so many fascinating storylines threading through the EPL play-off final that it’s hard to know where to start.

One side has forwards that Premier League clubs are waiting to poach should they fail on Tuesday. One had its heart broken by having an open goal to aim at to clinch automatic promotion – and missing. Twice.

One club are also set to play in a new stadium for the first time. While also hoping to play in the Premier League for the first time to christen it.

And that’s just Brentford.

For their opponents, Fulham FC, life is a little more modest.

True, they are rebuilding their iconic Riverside Stand, rather than a whole new stadium, but every end and one corner of that Fulham Stadium is iconic in some way. That’s what happens when your changing room is a listed building and you play on the banks of the Thames.

The Premier League vultures are circling but perhaps just one Fulham player, Aleksander Mitrovic, but there were no takers for him when his side went down two years ago.

What Brentford have to gain from promotion probably overpowers what either side has to lose.

None of that will be of any interest to Fulham’s still very young manager Scott Parker, who is also still in his first full season in charge of the London club, or any club for that matter.

He’s still remarkably honest in interviews and avoids the somewhat nauseous constant flow of excuses of some Premier League managers. Deep in his heart he seems to know that his current squad are good enough to get to the top flight but probably not good enough stay there.

If his side lose to Brentford on the pitch, he can expect to lose Mitrovic in the transfer market.

---

“How brittle Brentford are if they are 2-0 down at half time is as valid a question as how brittle Fulham are if they are 2-0 up.”

---

That is not a disaster in itself as English football has never been short of burly centre forwards who can finish. You might even argue that Parker, if pressed, would not want to replace the giant Serb with a similar player because a more versatile forward would enable a different style of football to be played; a style perhaps more inkeeping with the other ten players on the pitch.

If Fulham however prevail on Tuesday, Parker will find resources at his disposal for the first time and it will be fascinating to see a young coach build a side in his own image. With a new team, and a new stand, he will have a better chance of cracking the somewhat more flaccid Premier League top six than any previous Fulham manager has faced in the modern era.

First, they have to overcome a side who finished above them in the league and beat them in their last two meetings.

Some would say that makes Brentford favourites. The consensus on Talk Sport on the night Fulham qualified was that if Brentford played as well as they can, they would prevail.

“It depends on what Brentford side turns up” was the mantra.

It is true that when they are good, they are very good. But who turns in their performance of a 50+ game season in the play-off final at Wembley? The answer is no-one (except Northampton) so we have to look elsewhere for clues as to who may prevail.

Lets start with form.

WHO ARE THE FORM TEAM?

Fulham have just lost at home to Cardiff, a lesser side; and one who they beat at the same venue just weeks ago. The night before that, Brentford beat Swansea, a side with a not dissimilar points total 3-1. So Brentford are in form, right?

Parker would argue that Thursday night’s match against Cardiff in the second leg was more about ‘game management’ than the result after 90 minutes.

His job was to secure a place at Wembley without risking a nearly but not quite fit, Mitrovic. He succeeded. Losing Neeskens Kebano at half time didn’t help him, but could be said to prove the wisdom of resting Mitrovic, after all most Championship sides have been through such a solid run of two games per week.

If Kebano is fit, he is now also rested.

---

Full Championship Coverage

The Play-offs

---

Previous to achieving his mission against Cardiff, Parker’s side are unbeaten in eight games, with a goal difference of 14-5. Five of those eight were away from home. Some of them were under pressure, some less so.

Fulham’s worst moments in that period came when they seemed safe at half time. Against Sheffield Wednesday they were 3-0 up at half time and coasting, having not conceded a goal for over eight hours. In the second half, complacency hit and they shed three goals, and came perilously close to surrendering the win.

You could argue that in the two-legged semi final, they left Wales at half time in the tie, with a 2-0 lead. Cardiff too exposed an inability to coast and they lost the ‘second half’ of the tie. Can we conclude Fulham are most vulnerable when seemingly safe at half time?

Brentford had a wonderful winning streak of eight, straight then the pressure hit them and they lost three on the bounce. Those wins came when there was little expectation of them and they seemed to be playing for a play-off place at best. Faced with the chance to grab an automatic promotion slot, they faltered.

They recovered to beat Swansea 3-1 in Griffin Park’s last game to suggest that maybe their dalliance with nerves under pressure is over.

How brittle Brentford are if they are 2-0 down at half time is as valid a question as how brittle Fulham are if they are 2-0 up.

If Fulham lose the first goal, they have reason not to panic having equalised at both Wigan and at home to Cardiff, the last two times it happened.

The only reasonable conclusion to this is that the record indicates that the first goal might not necessarily be decisive, as neither side seem terribly clinical at closing down either games or situations.

EXPERIENCE FAVOURS FULHAM

Where Fulham might have the edge is experience.

They were at the same stage two years ago when they played Aston Villa. Many of the squad who played that day are still at the club. This was their line up at Wembley that day:

Marcus Bettinelli; Ryan Fredericks (Cyrus Christie 83′), Denis Odoi, Tim Ream, Matt Targett, Kevin McDonald, Stefan Johansen (Oliver Norwood 72′), Tom Cairney (c), Aboubakar Kamara (Tomáš Kalas 77′), Ryan Sessegnon, Aleksandar Mitrović

Unused Substitutes: David Button, Floyd Ayité, Rui Fonte, Lucas Piazon

That would be nine men who will be on that team bus on Tuesday ,all of whom saw some action against Villa. That’s a lot of experience.

Against a side who have twice wilted under pressure and are playing the biggest game in their club’s history, that could be valuable.

BRENTFORD’S PSYCHOLOGICAL ADVANTAGE

Brentford however have the psychological advantage of having won their last two meetings.

Two late goals from Said Benrahma and Emiliano Marcondes secured a 2-0 win on June 20 at Craven Cottage.

Bobby De Cordova-Reid did hit the crossbar at 0-0 but Brentford had a majority of the possession (51.7%) and outshot Fulham by 13-9.

The Bees also emerged victorious in their home fixture on December 19, 2019.

Bryan Mbeumo volleyed the only goal of the game in the home in the first half, Benrahma supplying the assist.

Ollie Watkins, Pontus Jansson and Mathias Jensen also hit the post in a game Brentford dominated with 23 shots to Fulham’s 11. Seven of those 23 were on target.

There can be little doubt that having done the double over Fulham presents the Bees with a psychological advantage, but given the long lay off, that might be a little diminished.

HISTORY

Brentford lead the historic duel by just 22 wins to 21 with 17 draws, but are unbeaten in the last five meetings with three wins and two draws.

Fulham’s last win came on November 4, 2016, a 2-0 win at Griffin Park, Sone Aluko and Cairney scoring the goals. Fuham manager Scott Parker was a substitute that day, replacing Aluko.

Brentford were the highest scoring Championship team with 80 goals in the regular season netting 1.74 goals per game. Their defensive record conceding 38, was second only to Leeds. Fulham scored 64 and conceded 48.

The sides however finished level on 81 points.

DECIDING FACTOR?

The biggest variable hangs over the fitness of Fulham’s best player, Mitrvoic, and their most on form player, Kebano. Mitrovic missed both legs of the semi final against Cardiff. Along with Brentford’s Watkins, the Serb is the division’s top scorer on 26 goals.

Scott Parker has been using words like ‘sure’ and ‘likely’ when asked about the probability of his availability, but that is not the same as him being 100% match fit.

Kebano scored in both games against Cardiff, at Wigan and against Sheffield Wednesday but went off at half-time with an ice pack strapped to the top of his leg last Thursday in the second leg.

Parker is under no obligation to give Brentford any clues as to their progress which leaves us to speculate the best and the worst.

The match could go to extra time. If they are both, not just 90, but 120 minutes match fully fit, Fulham have enough quality to win this match, even though that difference is marginal given Brentford’s own forward prowess.

But without Kebano’s current lightening form and his goals from free kicks, the Fulham threat diminishes considerably. Brentford’s back line of Ethan Pinnock, Ricoh Henry, Henrik Dalsgaard and Pontus Jansson probably has enough quality to contain what’s left.

It’s hard to see Brentford not scoring in this game, whether they claim the first goal or not. But it’s harder to see any side withstanding the irrepressible Kebano if he is on his latest form, or reducing a fully fit Mitrovic to few enough chances that he won’t bury just one.

Kick off: 7.45 PM on Tuesday August 4

Referee: Martin Atkinson

Assistant Referees: Lee Betts & Constantine Hatzidakis

Fourth Official: Peter Banks.

Follow our live match coverage on Twitter @ProstInt and from @Steve__Clare who will be at Wembley Stadium for the match.

[columns]
[column size=”1/2″][blog type=”timeline” posts=”10″ cats=”654″ heading=”Fulham” heading_type=”timeline” /][/column]
[column size=”1/2″][blog type=”timeline” posts=”10″ cats=”2821″ heading=”Brentford” heading_type=”timeline” /][/column]
[/columns]