Trying to make sense of Brighton & Hove Albion’s winless run

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An unexpectedly strong start to the season for a perennially bottom-half Premier League club is likely to end in one of two ways.

Either they go on to have a campaign that defies belief and pull off a season to remember like Leicester City in 2015/16 or, more realistically, West Ham last season or they come crashing back down to earth as slightly fortunate wins turn into draws and late goals start arriving at the wrong end of the field.

Following Saturday’s goalless draw against Leeds United, Brighton and Hove Albion have now gone eight Premier League games without winning, causing a start to the season that more than defied expectations to continue its dissipation into a slightly-above-average first half to the campaign.

Much has been made of the booing from sections of the home crowd at the Amex Stadium at full-time, and whilst Albion supporters were quite right to be frustrated at not being able to win the game after witnessing a performance that more than merited three points, attempting to deny that the Seagulls start to the season has been anything other than a success would seem misguided.

Brighton boss Graham Potter was visibly perturbed upon hearing the dissent, and although he was no doubt also frustrated that his team did not end their winless run, he was combative in dismissing the booing in his post-match comments.

“I can only say I am really proud of my team, proud of the players and how they played against a tough opponent, created chances.

“Maybe I need a history lesson. I need to understand where we are at because as far as I can see we are eighth in the Premier League and the boys are giving everything. We’ll carry on.”

Brighton Head Coach Graham Potter following Saturday’s goalless draw against Leeds United 

He is quite right to be dismissive of the spattering of boo’s that greeted the full-time whistle based on both Brighton’s current league position and the fact that they played perfectly well against Marcelo Bielsa’s side. They would have likely picked up all three points had they not been dogged by issues that held them back for so much of last season.

He could have perhaps clarified whether he felt his team was performing well in the context of Brighton’s recent history or the history of the football club as a whole.

Expecting expectations to not have changed since the days of the Seagulls battling for survival in the fourth-tier would be to overlook the progress that has been made on and off the field in the past decade or so, but in Premier League terms, there can be little to be upset about.

Brighton have never started a top-flight season with as many points after 13 games as the 18 that they currently have, and even if they are not collecting points at the same rate as they were in the early Autumn, their level of performance has been relatively consistent throughout, typified by a controlled display on Saturday evening.

Neal Maupay was at his most wasteful in front of goal, missing two glorious opportunities in the first half, but he was not the only man in a blue and white shirt guilty of not making the most of his chances. With the final whistle approaching the familiar, yet still exasperating, feeling that Brighton would have to make do with a point began to infiltrate the home support.

It is understandable that any fan would be annoyed that their team could not find a way to win a game they have dominated, yet the audible discontent that caught the attention of Potter at full-time surely cannot be any sort of judgement on how this season has played out so far. Even the recent difficult run has hardly been characterised by abject displays or uninspired football.

The first two games of the current run without a win in fact came in the sequence of results that saw Brighton perched in the Champions League qualification places at the beginning of October.

A 1-1 draw at Crystal Palace was widely acknowledged as a good point thanks to Maupay’s injury-time equaliser, and the goalless draw with Arsenal saw the Seagulls dictate the flow of the game against a side that was in the midst of an eight-game unbeaten run that has them on the verge of the top four.

The 0-0 draw with Norwich that came directly after the October International break was an underwhelming performance against a struggling team, and Brighton were perhaps fortunate to come away with even a point, yet it was the type of showing that is not uncommon after two weeks without a game.

The way Brighton play may have hamstrung them in the 4-1 defeat against Manchester City at the Amex on the following weekend, but within that game, there was a promising second half performance against one of the best teams in European football that also provided a blueprint for them to be more competitive in such fixtures in the future.

A midweek trip to Leicester City in the Fourth Round of the Carabao Cup saw two much-changed starting 11’s play out an entertaining contest littered with individual errors that was eventually decided by a penalty shoot-out.

However, it was the league fixture that followed that provides the clearest indication that the Seagulls’ performances have by no means nose-dived in recent weeks.

Maupay was dropped to the bench with Leandro Trossard utilised as a ‘false nine’ ahead of a midfield packed with both physicality and technical prowess for the meeting with Liverpool.

Jurgen Klopp’s side were unbeaten at the time, winning 11 of their first 14 games across all competitions, and scoring so freely that a 5-0 win at Old Trafford six days before Brighton’s visit was nowhere near the surprise it would be in most seasons.

The eventual 2-2 draw at Anfield was achieved despite Brighton falling two goals down within the opening half an hour and it came against an in-form version of Liverpool, meaning it is arguably just as impressive a result in Brighton’s Premier League history as the 1-0 win there in February.

The unforeseen issue with such an impressive result, as with an impressive start to the campaign as a whole, is that it creates expectation. The 1-1 home draw against managerless Newcastle United that followed was therefore something of a crashing back down to earth.

Newcastle sat deep defensively and offered little space for Trossard and his teammates to exploit, and although a one-goal lead was given up in the second half to an Isaac Hayden goal, the evening could have ended with no points had Robert Sanchez not brought down Callum Wilson with an open goal gaping behind him.

Travelling to take on Aston Villa in the game immediately after the November international break was turned into something of an unknown quantity given the Midlands club replaced manager Dean Smith with Steven Gerrard in the week leading up to the game. Irrespective of any notions of a ‘new manager bounce’, Brighton hardly put in a disastrous performance.

A game they largely had the better of was decided in the final 10 minutes thanks to a moment of individual brilliance from Villa forward Ollie Watkins and some uncharacteristically sloppy defending that allowed Tyrone Mings to seal the result.

Had the defeat come on the back of a win the week before, it would have been nothing to get overly worried about given the differences in expenditure between the two clubs and the fact Brighton were hardly second-best on the day, but given it extended the winless run to eight games, a considerable amount of angst had built up ahead of Saturday’s visit of Leeds.

Maupay was restored to the starting 11 following the difficulties the team had fashioning chances to score against both Newcastle and Villa, and the first half was an undeniably good Brighton performance. Tariq Lamptey was causing a level of chaos that now has to be seen as characteristic of his short career in senior football, and a depleted Leeds outfit looked ready to collapse if the home side could find the first goal.

But that goal never came.

The woodwork was struck on three separate occasions, and the first of Maupay’s misses would have defied belief had it not been something that was seen so often in the 2020/21 season. In the end, no breakthrough could be found and the storm in a teacup that was the booing was allowed to swirl.

In the seven games leading up the October international break, the Seagulls were averaging an expected goals (xG) per 90 total of just under 1.2, and in the six games since, they have averaged a total of just over 1.26 per game.

This would suggest Brighton are still creating chances at a similar level to what they were during the perceived good spell but they are just are not taking them.

Whilst this will of course be a concern given it has been an issue for at least 18 months or so now, Brighton’s consistency at the back should provide some comfort.

Although their expected goals conceded per 90 has risen from 1.08 to 1.31 during the same breakdown of fixtures, the second batch of games includes league leaders City racking up a total of 3.31 during their 4-1 win at the Amex, the highest single-game total the Seagulls have conceded since the final weeks of the 2019/20 season.

The fact that Brighton were able to collect four wins in the first five games of the season but none in the following eight is the reality of their place in the Premier League. The majority of games are likely to be tight, competitive and decided by a single goal.

The style they have developed under Potter has allowed them to be more competitive against the better sides in the division but has not yet reached a level where they can swot aside those around them and below on a regular basis.

However, Brighton have never been in such a strong position in their Premier League history. This effectively means it is as good a time as any to go through a tough spell of form, but basing it on the team’s results alone would cause you to miss out on so much.

Lamptey has been nothing short of sensational since making his long-awaited return to first-team action, major summer-signing Marc Cucurella has thrived on the opposite flank, Maupay has by no means been left without support in opponents’ penalty areas with both Jakub Moder and new arrival Enock Mwepu looking capable of boosting the number of goals arriving from midfield.

All of this is taking place without mentioning that Trossard is playing his best football since joining the club. He was inches away from his fourth goal of the season at the weekend with a rasping shot that Illan Meslier pushed onto a post.

Just as the winless run that Brighton are currently experiencing deserves to be put in context, the booing that drew an unwarranted amount of attention to a game that finished with no goals needs to be analysed with an element of realism.

It was not as though all of the home supporters inside the Amex were howling with derision at the team’s inability to find the back of the net, nor was there a great deal of audible discontent aimed at the players during the 90 minutes.

Without knowing the reasoning behind their frustration, it is quite possible it was a heat of the moment reaction to the Seagulls failing to find a winner rather than an insight into an underlying discontent among the fanbase at events either on or off the field.

Potter was clearly taken aback by what he heard in the aftermath of a disappointing result. This perhaps goes some way to explaining his uncharacteristically combative attitude when questioned on it after the game, but when speaking to the media ahead of Wednesday’s trip to West Ham, he spoke eloquently and explained the emotions behind what he had said on Saturday in a way that few top-flight managers are willing to do.

“There are emotions after games, people when they reflect back they might think that they got caught up in stuff.

“The reaction was a bit confusing from my perspective, but it wasn’t all of our supporters, it was just a few of them.

“As disappointing as it, you have to accept it because that’s the world we live in and people are entitled to their opinions.”

Graham Potter ahead of Brighton’s fixture against West Ham on Wednesday

If Brighton are to end their winless run either at the London Stadium or in the not-t00-distant future, head coach, players and supporters remaining united behind a footballing project that continues to produce some of the most innovative and progressive football in the Premier League could be vital.

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