Realistically, Cambridge United and Accrington Stanley’s respective seasons are over, but both would consider that to be a good thing.
The two sides find themselves in 16th and 13th place respectively in the League One table going into their clash at The Abbey this weekend.
The U’s have maintained an eight-point gap on the bottom four that will likely keep them in the division for the next season, but their chances of challenging for a top-six finish come the end of the season are nigh-on impossible unless they put together a winning run unseen of Mark Bonner’s side so far this campaign.
The same can be said for Accrington, whose 13-point lead on Morecambe in 21st will undoubtedly see them retain their League One status. While closing down the 10 points between themselves and Plymouth in seventh is not out of the realms of possibility, the quality of teams between John Coleman’s men and the play-off places means that it would be incredibly unlikely to see them vying for promotion to the Championship.
Yet given the two clubs’ respective sizes, this is a monumental achievement. Cambridge have competed in the third tier for the first time in over 20 years, while Accrington are set to complete their fourth consecutive season in League One despite hailing from a town of just over 35,000 people. Both teams are operating on two of the smallest budgets in the division and their relative success is made to feel much greater as a result.
However, with 15 games remaining, fans of both teams could be forgiven for feeling a little bit lethargic about the rest of the season, especially when facing off against each other in the midst of Storm Eunice. The expectation between now and the end of the season will be for Cambridge and Accrington to challenge for a top-half finish.
This might end up being beyond reach for the U’s, who are sat in the lower half of mid-table and are set to face the toughest run-in of any side in the division. The priority for Bonner will be to mathematically secure safety for his side ahead of trips to the likes of Ipswich Town, Wigan Athletic and Sunderland to round off the season.
Part of the reason why Cambridge have dropped so low in the table is because of injuries. Lloyd Jones (groin) and Shilow Tracey (ankle) have both missed large parts of the campaign through injury, while club captain Greg Taylor (ankle) has been absent since August and Brighton-loanee Jensen Weir (knee) has been sidelined in recent weeks, temporarily returning to his parent club for treatment.
While all four are set to return to action in the coming weeks, Bonner will be without two of his best players for the foreseeable future. Both top goalscorer Joe Ironside and starting centre-back Jack Iredale picked up serious ankle injuries against Doncaster Rovers and Bolton Wanderers respectively, forcing the U’s into a reshuffle for the final third of the season.
Instead of aiming for a top-half finish, Bonner may be keen to plan for the future. Both Ironside and Iredale could leave the club in the summer, with the latter approaching the final few months of his contract and the U’s manager may be better using the remainder of the campaign to plan out his side’s long-term future.
The building blocks have already been put in place for this, with Cambridge moving away from their style of playing overly direct football to a target-man striker who can hold up the ball.
Ultimately, Sam Smith is not able to do that, while new arrival Lorent Tolaj is yet to be deemed fit to start. Instead, Bonner has started playing to Smith’s strengths and he was rewarded with a goal from the former Reading man in the 2-2 draw at Burton Albion.
Similarly, academy graduate Ben Worman has been given a more prominent role in the first team and is widely tipped to be a regular member of the starting lineup if Wes Hoolahan leaves the club at the end of the season, with a return to Ireland expected for the 39-year-old when his current contract finishes.
With Accrington having become a regular fixture in the third tier in recent seasons, their expectations may be somewhat higher. Coleman’s side are yet to finish above 11th since winning promotion from League Two in 2018, and while their aspirations are to be a sustainable football club, they will also be keen to see the continuous progression as they aim to push towards a play-off place in the coming seasons.
That does not mean that they have to shy away from their current model, which has brought them an immense amount of success in recent years. The club thrives on finding hidden gems in non-league such as Colby Bishop, eventually selling them for profit to bring in more accomplished Football League regulars who are perhaps struggling at teams higher up the pyramid, such as Ethan Hamilton.
It is clear where Coleman’s side need to improve. Accrington have the fifth-best home form in League One, winning nine of their 17 games on their own soil this season. Conversely, they would be 19th in the table based on away fixtures alone, having won just three times on the road this campaign, a much worse record than that of the U’s.
In many ways, Cambridge are keen to follow the same path as Accrington, but the Lancashire side are slightly further down the line at the moment, as was shown in their 2-1 win against the U’s at the Wham Stadium back in August. Their upcoming clash at The Abbey will undoubtedly be used as a benchmark to dictate how much Bonner’s men have improved since that game.
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