Cambridge United show resilience and improvement to earn themselves a point against in-form Fleetwood Town

On the surface, a 2-2 draw against Fleetwood Town isn’t a great result.

The Cod Army are considered to be one of the smallest clubs in the division and were widely tipped by the bookies to finish in the bottom four in League One this season.

Dig a little deeper and you might change your mind. In reality, Simon Grayson has created an incredibly determined side who, despite being perennial underdogs, are capable of beating any team in the division. They showed this by going 1-0 up at The Abbey inside of two minutes thanks to James Hill’s header from a corner.

Perhaps this wasn’t a huge statement. After all, Lincoln City took the lead away at Cambridge within 25 seconds and went on to win 5-1. However, the opening stages of their trip to East Anglia showed why Fleetwood are a much better side than they’ve been made out to be.

Swinging the balance of play was always going to be a challenge for the U’s, especially against a side that kept such a rigid shape off the ball. It took a moment of magic from Adam May to beat Alex Cairns in the Fleetwood goal with a low strike from 25 yards out.

At that point, the momentum change was evident, and it took just six minutes after the restart for the hosts to take the lead. Jack Iredale burst forward from left-back, taking the ball past two Fleetwood players before forcing a cross into the box for Shilow Tracey to score with a deft first-touch finish.

Perhaps this was the worst time to score. It gave the U’s almost 40 minutes to hold onto their one-goal cushion, and Mark Bonner’s side aren’t the type to force bodies forward in order to extend their lead. The hosts remained calm and composed on the ball, limiting Fleetwood’s counter-attacking opportunities in the second half.

It would take another screamer to level the scores, this time coming from Fleetwood substitute Paddy Lane. The 20-year-old was given far too much space by Iredale on the right flank, allowing him to cut inside and loop a powerful effort over Dimitar Mitov. The winger has a goal and an assist to his name already this season, despite not having started a game for the Cod Army since joining the club over the summer.

While many appreciated the point, Bonner was frustrated that his side was unable to seal the win. It shows an important progression, with similarities being drawn to the away game at Accrington Stanley in mid-August.

The U’s fell to a 2-1 defeat at the Wham Stadium, with both goals emanating from Sean McConville’s crosses into the box from left wing-back. Cambridge allowed Accrington far too much space in wide areas, and failed to threaten their three centre-backs in the final third of the pitch.

There was an evident lack of confidence in playing another team with a five-man defence, as Max Clarke and Callum Johnson were given far too much freedom out wide. Their deliveries into the box left a lot to be desired, however, leaving the strike partnership of Ryan Edmondson and Gerard Garner isolated in the penalty area. Where Cambridge crumbled against Accrington’s 5-3-2 formation, they thrived against that of Fleetwood.

Perhaps if Callum Morton had played, the scoreline would’ve been different, but the fact that Bonner was left frustrated by dropping points against a side on a five-match unbeaten run shows a clear improvement and an increased level of expectations.

Draw specialists Gillingham will be the next team to visit The Abbey, having taken a point from three of their last four games. It’s been enough to see them keep their distance from the bottom four, with Steve Evans’ side in 19th ahead of Tuesday night’s game.

Bonner will be focused on keeping Vadaine Oliver quiet, given that the 29-year-old scored 17 League One goals last season. However, U’s striker Joe Ironside is almost a third of a way to that tally already, having found the back of the net five times in eight games so far this season.

In fact, Cambridge are one of a few sides to score in every league game so far this season, despite losing 32-goal striker Paul Mullin to Wrexham after winning promotion from League Two. That being said, their expected goals (xG) tally is amongst the lowest in the division, with only Doncaster Rovers having a worse xG from open play this season according to The Analyst.

Speaking to Prost International, Bonner explained to what extent his side focuses on statistics like xG.

“We do look at it. We look at it in terms of opposition. We look at it for goals scored and goals against, but it doesn’t keep us awake at night because in the end the stat that matters is the one that determines what points there are.

“You can find hundreds of stats, and sometimes xG can be a little bit deceiving because the context of it isn’t considered. When we have a lead, we sometimes defend them, which by definition means you’re deeper in the pitch, which means you create less chances and you probably allow the opposition more chances at times, but you try and dictate what sort of chances they are.

“It isn’t something that we worry about too much. I think the fact that we’re a clinical team is important. Everyone will tell me that statistically we were a bad side in League Two last year, but we can’t have been too bad because there were certain statistics that were good enough to get us promoted and were better than many others in the league.

“So it just depends which ones you look at. Ultimately the one that matters is how many points you get, and that can be a contributing factor towards it. So you’re never dismissive of that, but it’s certainly not the defining factor for us.”

Cambridge’s statistics in defensive phases are much more impressive, especially since Conor Masterson joined the club and formed an incredibly strong partnership with Lloyd Jones. The U’s xG conceded is on a similar level to that of Sunderland and Wigan Athletic, and better than the likes of Wycombe Wanderers, Bolton Wanderers and Portsmouth.

This is even more impressive when considering that their defence was ravaged by injury earlier in the season, and the fact that the statistics are somewhat skewed by the freak 5-1 defeat at home to Lincoln. Jubril Okedina was forced to step into the lineup after Jones’ injury, but the Liverpool academy graduate will almost certainly return to the side for the visit of Gillingham on Tuesday night.

Cambridge’s defensive strength is the main reason for their positive results, and their impressive attacking output has helped them catapult towards the top half of the table. If they can keep picking up points on a consistent basis, it will certainly ease the pressure on them ahead of some incredibly tough fixtures in October and November.

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