Cambridge under pressure to avoid humiliating collapse as League Two’s promotion race reaches the final day

On Friday 23rd April, bookies removed odds on Cambridge United to win promotion from League Two. Now they have just one game left to secure a top three finish.

The U’s had a string of stellar performances in April that catapulted them to the summit of the fourth tier. A convincing win away at Leyton Orient set up a tantalising clash against local rivals Stevenage, where a result for Mark Bonner’s side would seal promotion to League One.

A small group of fans welcomed the team buses to the Abbey Stadium with chants and smoke bombs. Hopes were high, the promotion banners were tucked behind the stands and the champagne was on ice. Of course, if anyone was going to ruin the party, it would be Stevenage boss Alex Revell.

The 37-year-old was born in Cambridge and came through the U’s academy. He made nearly 60 appearances in four years at the club, but never really managed to establish his place as a first-team regular. 17 years after leaving as a player, he was presented with the chance to return to his boyhood club as a manager and prevent them from winning promotion.

His side had just 46% of the ball, but were ruthless out of possession. They pressed Cambridge with such incredible intensity and forced countless mistakes from the league leaders. If they were clinical in attack, Boro could’ve won by four or five goals. Ultimately, Luke Norris’ header from a poorly defended set-piece was enough to seal a 1-0 win for the visitors.

Perhaps this was understandable. Despite an absolutely dire performance, it was clear that the pressure had gotten to the U’s. Surely this was a one-off, right? Especially with a trip to struggling Harrogate Town coming up the following Friday. All they had to do was avoid defeat and automatic promotion would be practically secured.

In fact, the Sulphurites made it as easy as they possibly could for Cambridge. Simon Weaver made copious changes to his side ahead of an FA Trophy final just three days later, while Bonner kept his lineup unchanged from the defeat to Stevenage.

But within 20 minutes, Harrogate were 3-0 up.

The visitors had completely capitulated in the first half, and despite a late comeback, they went into the half-time break 4-2 down. Brendan Kiernan, who had scored one league goal all season before facing Cambridge, got his hat-trick in just 32 minutes.

Bonner has been renowned for his team talks and his ability to get the U’s fired up in the second halves of games. This looked to be the case again when Paul Mullin scored a brace to tie the game at 4-4 and equal Tom Pope’s record of 31 goals in a single League Two season. Approaching the dying embers of the match, it looked like they’d done enough to earn the point needed for automatic promotion.

It wasn’t to be.

Cambridge failed to properly clear another dangerous set-piece, allowing Kevin Lokko to fire a low shot past Callum Burton with just six minutes to play. They lost 5-4.

That takes League Two’s automatic promotion race into the final day of the season. Cheltenham have already secured their place in the third tier, but a win against Harrogate would see them clinch the title. Cambridge can still beat them to top spot, but only if they beat Grimsby in their final game and the Robins fail to win.

However, U’s priority will be to secure a top three finish, which is by no means a guaranteed.

Avoiding defeat would almost certainly see Bonner’s side win promotion, with both Bolton and Morecambe on significantly lower goal difference. Even losing to the Mariners would be enough if either of their Lancashire promotion rivals were to drop points in their own games against Crawley and Bradford respectively.

There are 27 different permutations, and only one would see Cambridge drop to fourth. That’s if they lose and both Bolton and Morecambe win. However, that hasn’t stopped fans from worrying that the club’s season is on the verge of a humiliating collapse.

Of course, failing to win promotion would be disastrous for the Cambridgeshire outfit. They were in a position where they needed just one point from their last three games (all against opponents with nothing to play for) to secure a top three finish. That situation hasn’t changed, but they have just one game to do it in.

It’s clear that this Cambridge side does not thrive under pressure.

Clearly, there have been games this season which have proven this statement to be wrong. Bonner’s side picked up crucial wins against the likes of Forest Green, Morecambe and Leyton Orient in the last couple of months. But when it really mattered, the nerves have started to show.

Against Stevenage, the U’s were pressed into making mistakes and paid the price for it. They couldn’t break down Boro’s rigid 4-4-2 system, stifling Mullin of any opportunities up front. Harrogate adopted the same formation, absolutely annihilating Cambridge’s anxious defence on the counterattack. The North Yorkshire outfit capitalised on every error that the visitors made, and were genuinely unlucky not to score seven or eight times.

While that big match anxiety clearly plays a part in their recent collapse, Bonner’s preferred 4-1-2-1-2 diamond formation has caused more harm than good recently.

In their last two games, they’ve come up against very expansive teams who like to hit them on the counter and exploit space. Cambridge have been unable to handle this because they’ve been instructed to line up very narrowly and focus their play through the centre of the pitch.

The U’s boss has played a lot of this season with a 4-4-2, and it feels like that’s the best option to face the Mariners, who’ve played a resolute 5-3-2 formation in their most recent games.

Despite already being relegated, Paul Hurst’s side are a tough team to beat, as shown by their recent 1-0 win against Port Vale which ended the Valiants’ nine match unbeaten run.

Not only will they be playing without the pressure that Cambridge face, but many of their players will be out to prove that they have what it takes to remain in the Football League following the confirmation of Grimsby’s return to the fifth tier.

The real positive for the U’s is that their future is in their own hands. It’s their result that will dictate whether they win promotion or not, and they won’t have to worry about what’s going on elsewhere if they can get the job done themselves.

Everything is stacked in their favour, but that same pressure will still be there. They have to learn to overcome it, or they may well have to settle for a place in the playoffs.

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