Mick McCarthy and Cardiff City might just be a perfect match

Four games in to any managerial reign is almost certainly too early to suggest that a club has found the perfect man for the job, but all of the signs from Mick McCarthy’s early weeks in the Cardiff City dugout indicate the Bluebirds might just be on to a good thing.

An unbeaten start to life in the Welsh capital has seen McCarthy guide the club from the doldrums of lower mid-table into the top half, igniting feint hopes that the play-offs might not yet be out of reach and undoubtedly improving the mood at the Cardiff City Stadium.

Since the former Wolves and Sunderland manager’s acrimonious exit from Ipswich in April 2018, he has largely been grouped with the ‘tactical dinosaurs’ that forward-thinking, ambitious EFL clubs should avoid appointing.

An uninspiring second spell in charge of the Republic of Ireland ended with failure to qualify for Euro 2020 from a fairly kind qualification group, and a recent stint at APOEL of Cyprus lasted just two months after McCarthy lost five of his first eight games in charge.

Despite his struggles on the sidelines, his say-it-as-it-is style of punditry made him a massively popular co-commentator on Sky Sport’s Championship coverage – suggesting the gantry may be where he saw out his career in football.

At the same time McCarthy was toiling in the Mediterranean, Cardiff were going through a difficult spell of their own. After Neil Harris had guided them to the play-offs last season, the Bluebirds were stranded in mid-table after local rivals Swansea City had beaten them in the South Wales Derby, starting of a run of just two wins in eight.

Chairman Mehmet Dalman had made it clear at the start of the season that the minimum expectation of Harris was to guide the team into the top six by January. Following a 1-0 home defeat to QPR on January 20th, Cardiff found themselves 15th in the table, 13 points off sixth-placed Bournemouth.

Harris was unsurprisingly dismissed the following day. He had been caught between trying to adapt the direct style of play that had brought promotion glory under predecessor Neil Warnock and remaining loyal to the players that been successful playing that way for him in the previous campaign, with glaring holes in the squad only making matters worse.

The addition of Wales international forward Kieffer Moore in the summer, and the expensive loan acquisition of Liverpool’s Harry Wilson, created the impression that Cardiff now had the ideal set of players to secure a return to the Premier League at the second time of asking.

Moore has been largely good when fit and available – only Brentford’s Ivan Toney is averaging more non-penalty goals per 90 – but Harris struggled to get the best out of Wilson due to either playing style or formation, and an over-reliance on set-piece goals often made Cardiff one-dimensional.

From the outside, there was no obvious replacement for Harris once he was relieved of his duties. Many suggested a thorough overhaul of the club was needed, spearheaded by an up-and-coming young manager from further down the EFL such as Michael Flynn of Newport or Ryan Lowe of Plymouth. There were even ambitious suggestions that Eddie Howe could be tempted to revive his managerial career in the Welsh capital.

Therefore the arrival of McCarthy on a contract until the end of the season, just a day after Harris had cleared out his office, caught many off-guard.

“I’ve enjoyed the brief talk I’ve had with Mick and I’m confident he’s the right man to take on the responsibility of improving our performances and fortunes,” said owner Vincent Tan in the brief announcement on Cardiff’s website confirming the appointment.

The reaction among supporters and pundits was less positive. Many suggested it was proof of more short-term thinking; the type of approach to running a football club that had left Cardiff without a recognised right-back for much of the season and relying on the out-of-sorts Robert Glatzel for goals when Moore was ruled out with a hamstring tear.

A manager in his early 60’s who would more than likely oversee an uninspiring march to mid-table, whilst presumably reverting to the brand of direct football that made McCarthy so unpopular in his final months at Ipswich, did little to get the pulse racing.

However, based on Cardiff’s performances so far, McCarthy might just be the ideal Warnock replacement for the rest of this season and beyond.

The Bluebirds are unbeaten in his four games so far, picking up hard-fought draws against Barnsley and Millwall before a victory in the Severnside Derby against Bristol City and an impressive late win in the snow against in-form Rotherham on Tuesday night.

McCarthy has succeeded by keeping things simple. The 4-2-3-1 that Harris stuck by steadfastly has been phased out in favour of a 3-4-3, creating less emphasis on midfielders Joe Ralls and Will Vaulks to be creative thanks to the greater freedom afforded to the forward players.

The main beneficiary of this freedom has been Liverpool loanee Sheyi Ojo. The winger has two goals and an assist since McCarthy took the reins, and already seems to be playing with greater confidence than at any other point of the season.

Wilson was initially given some tough love by the new manager when he was left out of the Barnsley game and only used as a substitute in the draw against Millwall. However, that piece of man management seems to have paid off handsomely as well, with Wilson providing an assist off the bench against Gary Rowett’s side and then setting up goals in both of the wins this week.

In a more general sense, Cardiff are simply playing better. They have averaged 13 shots per game since McCarthy came in compared to 11.25 in Harris’ final four league games and their expected goals against is down from 1.3 per game to 1.04 per game in the same time period. This is a small sample to draw major conclusions from, but the general trend suggests the new boss is improving the team at the back and in attack.

As well as improving matters on the pitch, this new role appears to suit the affable Yorkshireman down to the ground. He has the experience and composure to deal with the pressure that comes with the demands of the Cardiff boardroom, and whilst comparisons to Warnock are a tad simplistic, the two share the charisma and Championship know-how that made the current Middlesbrough manager such a great success in South Wales.

It is still early to start suggesting Tan should place a long-term contract in front of McCarthy immediately though. So far they have only faced one side who currently sits above them in the Championship table, and that was a Bristol City outfit that have won just three of their last 11 games.

Whilst Saturday’s visitors Coventry City may appear another side Cardiff should be defeating on paper, the fact they currently sit 19th in the league table hardly does justice to the turn around in form they have experienced since the November international break.

Mark Robins’ side have lost just four of their last 17 Championship fixtures, showing a defensive resilience that has helped them pick up points against the likes of Watford and Norwich, as well as a 1-0 victory in the reverse of this fixture at St Andrews.

A fifth game unbeaten would would certainly do no harm in endearing the new boss to the Cardiff faithful even further, and if he can continue to get the best out of the Bluebirds’ talented squad, as well as meeting the expectations of those above him, there’s no reason why McCarthy’s stay in South Wales could be a matter of years rather than months.

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