Statistics show Sheffield United are not that bad – Chris Wilder will hope the turnaround starts against Southampton

While the Premier League table doesn’t lie, it can sometimes be a little hazy in telling the truth.

On paper, Sheffield United are odds-on for another defeat on Sunday. The table tells us the 412-mile round trip to the south coast will prove all but futile, once again.

After all, Sheffield United head to St Mary’s in the Premier League dregs, winless in the 11 games played. It is an utterly miserable record for Chris Wilder, having lost 10 and accrued just one draw. Heck, even that standalone point came courtesy of an 85th minute penalty that savalged a highly probable defeat against fellow relegation fodder, Fulham.

The last time these two sides met was the curtain closer to the 2019/20 season, when both Wilder and Ralph Hasenhuttl embraced a ‘schools out‘ type of feel to proceedings. But this time round, no trivial pleasantries or reasons for festive spirit is set to transpire. Problems in Sheffield are mounting, while Southampton continue on their merry way.

The brazened truth of reality is Sheffield United aren’t just struggling or have experienced a slow burner to the season. They’ve endured the worst start of any side in Premier League history. Issues have been intensifying since the resumption of football in June, where any harbouring hopes of Europa League football were quickly dashed and rather played out a barren end to the campaign.

Right now, the Blades are staring directly at the heaviest, most onerous football adage known to the sport; the small matter being they cannot seem to score and cannot seem to defend. In the 11 games played, they have shipped in 18 goals, an average of 1.6 per game. While that total is hardly an anomaly for a team scrabbling around the bottom, the times in the game in which they concede are a prelude to the larger, substantial concerns.

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This season, they have failed to lead in any match at half time. More pertinently, they have only trailed four times out of the 11 games. This shows Sheffield United are accruing a habit of conceding deep into matches, with not a lot of time to strike back. Statistics show exactly 50 percent of conceded goals (nine) have come in the final 30 minutes of match, with five out of them coming in minutes 76-90.

Those metrics markedly underline an inability to successfully close out games, either due to a sharp demise in fitness levels or more likely, the impotence of their own strikeforce to finish chances.

The Premier League has always been closely intertwined with fine margins and in Sheffield United’s case, it is no different. Eight of their 10 losses have been by a single goal. What accentuates the acute margins, which so often prove vital in distilling success and failure, is Sheffield United have always been set-up to win tight matches and nick them by the odd goal. This season, their natural traits have severely transformed into a team that makes a habit of losing fraught, low-scoring matches.

When analysing the expected goals (xG) of the side – a metric which measures the quality of goalscoring chances and the likelihood of them being scored – it highlights their finishing has been pretty hideous. xG tells us that if Chris Wilder’s men were able to put the ball into the net, they would earned a point against Aston Villa, Leeds and would have unequivocally beaten 19th-placed West Brom a fortnight ago. Instead, they lost all three games 1-0.

Admittedly, another footballing adage of second season syndrome could be taking place. But fine margins and a combination of confidence and abject finishing has gone against Chris Wilder. To continue with the expected goals statistics, The xG table argues Sheffield United haven’t been as totally catastrophic as their 20th league standing suggests. They’ve created around 12 xG of fruitful goalscoring chances, but have only managed to score five of them.

The table below shows the bottom eight for expected goals. Unsurprisingly, Sheffield United are ranked the lowest, with the team having scored seven fewer than they should have, given the quality of chances created.

Ralph Hasenhuttl and Southampton will know not all is what it seems when it comes to Sunday’s counterparts. With 2000 fans returning to the stadium for the first time since March 7, the Austrian will be understandably keen to exhibit the physical and technical maturation his team have undergone in the ensuing months.

And with fixtures against Arsenal and Manchester City coming in the space of four days, the clash against Sheffield United represents an ample opportunity to pick-up points and continue momentum.

The Premier League table isn’t false. But it does skew opinion. Sheffield United have been poor, but they can clench onto some residue of optimism. Southampton need to ensure that if they are to begin a turnaround, it does not start at St Mary’s on Sunday.

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