How badly do Brighton need a new striker?

As half-time substitute Aaron Connolly stabbed a 52nd-minute chance wide of the target with Brighton two goals to the good against Watford, Seagulls’ supporters could be forgiven for experiencing a familiar sinking feeling.

It was the type of opportunity that Graham Potter’s side squandered with an almost comical level of regularity last season, a significant factor in Brighton finishing their Premier League campaign having scored just 40 goals despite racking up an expected goals total of 56.7.

Even though they did see out a 2-0 victory over the Hornets to make it two wins from their opening two games, Connolly’s miss, the type that seals a victory and sends opposition supporters home early, will do little to calm fears that Brighton are missing something in the final third.

With the defence looking consistently sturdy, particularly since Robert Sanchez became the first-choice goalkeeper in December last year, and the midfield rarely troubled thanks to the persistent brilliance of Yves Bissouma, finding the finishing touch has understandably been identified as the final piece of an exciting puzzle for Graham Potter.

In the 2020/21 season, no team in the Premier League dropped more points from winning positions than Brighton’s 25, and although this can be partially attributed to the occasional defensive lapse or the reality of being a relatively small fish in the hyper-competitive pond that is the Premier League, the number of times Connolly and co. missed chances to finish games off undeniably held the team back.

Based on expected points, a calculation of the points you would have received based on expected goals and expected goals against, the majority of models had Brighton finishing comfortably in the top half of the table and some even had them as high as the Europa League qualification places.

The reality is of course that the Seagulls finished 16th in the table and regularly failed to turn impressive performances into points.

The obvious cure to goalscoring ills would appear to be signing a player with a track record of finding the back of the net. Celtic’s Odsonne Edouard and Benfica’s Darwin Nunez have both been linked with moves to the Amex to help bolster Potter’s forward options, but as of yet no new striker has arrived.

Despite a ’15-goal-a-season striker’ often being identified as something that should be top of every Premier League clubs’ shopping list come the summer transfer window, the reality is that very few forwards are such regular goalscorers outside of the traditional ‘top six’ sides.

Last season, the players who scored 15 goals or more in the Premier League were: Harry Kane, Mohamed Salah, Bruno Fernandes, Son Heung-min, Patrick Bamford, Dominic Calvert-Lewin and Jamie Vardy. None of these players, or players of their ilk, could have realistically been attained by Brighton this summer.

This is not to say that they should not strengthen in attack because they cannot compete with Manchester City for the signature of Kane, but it perhaps indicates that there is a good chance that simply signing another forward is not the quick fix option that is often presented as.

Aside from a hefty outlay of a reported £6omillion in his first transfer window in charge, Potter has shown a willingness to work with the players at his disposal to find solutions to tactical conundrums. Dan Burn has thrived as the world’s tallest wing-back and Adam Lallana has looked close to his balletic best in a deeper midfield role. A successful season for Brighton could depend on an internal answer to the goalscoring question.

This may well involve contributions arriving from different areas of the pitch.

It was returning fans’ favourite Shane Duffy who opened the scoring against Watford as he crashed home a header via the underside of Daniel Bachmann’s crossbar from a Pascal Gross corner, and even though the Irishman was not at the club last season, it continued a theme of Brighton’s defenders contributing at both ends of the pitch.

In 2020/21, Brighton’s backline, including wing-backs Tariq Lamptey and Solly March, scored a healthy 11 goals between them, and if the likes of Gross and Leandro Trossard can get closer to 20-goal contributions in terms of goals and assists rather than their respective totals of 11 and 10 from last season, they can hardly be blamed for any goalscoring woes.

Summer signing Enock Mwepu is expected to increase the number of goals arriving from Brighton’s midfield, and along with Bissouma should provide a platform for Gross, Trossard and Alexis Mac Allister to create chances, score goals and win games.

This does not mean that it is misguided to expect more from the Seagulls’ strikers though.

In the second part of last season, a number of the team’s forward options appeared completely devoid of confidence, particularly when presented with opportunities to score.

Connolly, Neal Maupay and Danny Welbeck all finished with goal tallies lower than their individual expected goals totals, and whilst this can be partially attributed to technical or tactical factors, their underperformance was only exacerbated by the team’s difficulties winning games. This created a destructive cycle of the forwards missing chances because the team lacks confidence and vice versa.

Maupay does many of the things you would want from your striker very well, but last season scoring goals regularly was not one of them. His strong start to the current campaign will not mean his wasteful finishing, penalty misses and disciplinary issues of last year are entirely forgotten, but is it an early sign that a new centre-forward is not the necessity that many have suggested?

As much as it will take time for some of these previous struggles to be fully overcome, Potter’s qualification in leadership and emotional intelligence has surely helped to reset the mindset of his squad during pre-season.

The comeback win against Burnley on the opening day was possibly an early-season example of a more resilient Brighton given the way they controversially fell behind in the opening minutes, and Maupay himself has tucked away two composed finishes in two games now.

In relation to the Frenchman’s goal against Watford, Potter suggested the intelligent pressing from Bissouma that created the goal is something the team have ‘tried to improve’, indicating we may see a more aggressive Brighton out of possession this season, potentially creating similar scoring opportunities throughout the campaign.

There is little reason for the Seagulls to doubt themselves so far this campaign with the team sitting fourth in the league table on maximum points.

“The squad is good in terms of numbers and depth, you are always looking to see if you can improve which is normal but I am happy with the players.

“My job is to help them improve and that is what we are going to try and do.”

– Graham Potter on the possibility of adding players to his squad before the transfer window closes

Even a head coach who has proven himself as resourceful as Potter would be unlikely to turn his nose up at the possibility of adding greater numbers to his squad, particularly with Maupay forced off through injury against Watford and Welbeck yet to feature this season.

That Connolly miss will have supporters hoping that a clinical centre-forward will arrive in the final week of the transfer window, but there are ample signs to suggest that Brighton’s current options will be enough to contribute towards a successful season.

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