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The ‘new manager bounce’ has become an increasingly well-recognised phenomenon within the EFL and beyond, and with so much on the line at the business end of every season, there can be little wonder why.
A run of wins that can often follow the appointment of a new man in the dugout opens up the possibility of a miraculous escape from relegation or a transformation of mid-table mediocrity into promotion glory, adding another layer of uncertainty into the unstable world of football management for those clinging onto their job come springtime.
Portsmouth made the decision to replace Kenny Jackett with Danny Cowley relatively early, relieving the former Millwall and Wolves boss of his duties on March 14th and bringing in his replacement just five days later on a contract until the end of the season.
The change seemed to be having the desired effect when Cowley, alongside brother and assistant manager Nicky, won his first four games in charge to guide Pompey from 10th in the League One table up into the play-off places.
The duo appeared to breathe new life into a season that was stalling – the team had won just one of their previous eight games before the change of manager – and belief began to build that this could be the year that the club returned to the Championship for the first time since 2012.
Jackett had become increasingly unpopular at Fratton Park due to back-to-back defeats in the play-offs at the end of the previous two seasons and combined with a fairly rudimentary playing style that struggled to get the best out of a talented group of players, there were few Portsmouth supporters who were sad to see him go.
The Cowley’s dream start has hit the buffers in recent weeks though. The initial run of four consecutive wins has been followed by a run of four games without a victory, seeing Pompey slip back out of the top six and now in a situation where they are relying on other teams to drop points to have any hope of ending the campaign with promotion.
“We are clear on how we think we can move the club forward, whether that be in League One next season or the Championship. We had another recruitment meeting on Thursday afternoon.
“We are a new group, there are new relationships, the trust and respect is still building. But I think they are a good group.
“Of course we must have a strategic focus about next season, but, with the games coming as quickly as they are, we have to put all our intensity and thought into Bristol Rovers.”
An issue that has characterised the tenure of the former Lincoln manager so far is a lack of options in attack. Strikers Jordi Hiwula and Ellis Harrison have both been injured for the majority of the time since Jackett’s departure, and a red card for top goalscorer John Marquis in Cowley’s second game in charge against Shrewsbury meant he missed the three matches that followed.
It is therefore perhaps no great surprise that Portsmouth have scored just three goals across their last five fixtures, an issue that is going to need resolving if the new manager is going to experience the second wind needed to finish in the play-offs.
However, Saturday’s opponents Bristol Rovers could hardly be more likely to provide a launchpad for another rebound in form.
Joey Barton’s side will be relegated to League Two if they fail to win at Fratton Park on Saturday, and that may not even be enough, as so long as Wigan avoid defeat against Burton, Rovers will be relegated.
Barton was less than complimentary about what he has perceived as a lack of effort from his struggling side following a midweek defeat to MK Dons that has effectively sealed their fate, after a run of just one win in 10 has seen their fight against the drop disintegrate.
“We can talk all we want but once you walk across the white line you’ve got to see a good performance. They can blame a whole manner of things but as a player, it all comes down to you.
“In 12 months, I think some of them would be very fortunate to still be a professional, because if they don’t put in the hard yards and respect the game or your profession then you end up with what’s happened to us, which is an abject showing, and with three games to go we’re all but relegated out of the division and I don’t think some of them deserve to play for a football club with a fanbase like this.”
– Bristol Rovers Head Coach Joey Barton speaking to Bristol Live
The ex-England international has won just three of his games in charge since taking over towards the end of February, indicating that his own new manager bounce has fallen rather flat, although the blame for this disappointing season cannot lay solely at his door.
Rovers have had three different permanent managers throughout the campaign, and last summers recruitment has proven to be inadequate, with their talisman across the previous two seasons, Jonson Clarke-Harris departing for Peterborough to become the highest goalscorer in League One with 28 goals – just 12 less than the entire Bristol Rovers team has managed.
Whilst attentions are likely to have already turned to how the club can re-build and attempt to escape the fourth tier next term, they are now effectively playing with nothing to lose, although many supporters would possibly argue that they have been playing like that for much of the season.
If Cowley and his players cannot get back to winning ways against such an out of sorts opponent on Saturday their hopes of achieving promotion will be all but over, but a win might just begin a second bounce that could lead them to the second tier.
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