A look into Aston Villa’s mid-season drop in performances

Aston Villa are slowly watching their hopes of European football next season dwindle away, but why is this?

Aston Villa enjoyed an unexpectedly successful and enjoyable start to this season. Dean Smith’s men won their first four games in the 2020/21 Premier League season before having swift reality checks from both Leeds United and Southampton. Their form following this has been mixed. In reference to more recent games, fans often regard the last time Villa played ‘well’ to be the first half in the 3-2 loss away at Burnley.

What exactly has changed from the fast flowing attacking football we saw at the start of the season to now?

The 3-2 loss to Burnley was the last game where Villa scored twice, going five games only scoring once and in three games, not scoring at all. This is a stark contrast to the Aston Villa side fans saw earlier in the season putting seven past the reigning English champions.

The goals are the end product, but Villa’s issues lie within their production and creativity in games. Before the Burnley game Villa averaged 15 shots per game, however in the eight games following this performance Villa have only been averaging 9.75 shots. They are posing less of a threat to their opposition.

They have recorded an expected goal value (xG) below one in five of the eight games in recent weeks. Even in wins against Leeds (0.88 xG) and Southampton (0.80 xG), Villa recorded a low xG and were lucky to win these games.

In the 18 games before this they only recorded an xG value below one four times. The attacking threat was consistent, and Villa were known for being a free-flowing attacking team. The team seen in these games is a direct contrast to the team Villa fans watched away at Brighton recently. They recorded an value of 0.14 xG in this game, the lowest since their return to the Premier League.

Creativity has been hard to come by recently, their previous average of 26 shot creating actions is now down to 14.4. Key passes are down from 12.3 per game to seven per game. The injury of Jack Grealish is obviously a large contributor to this, however the most recent game also outlined how much Villa miss Matty Cash.

This was particularly evident against Wolverhampton Wanderers, as the graphic shows. Villa failed to create any chance that contributed to their xG. With nine attacks down the right flank, and zero production, it is clear Villa are in desperate need of Cash to return. This may also act as a catalyst for Bertrand Traore, who in recent games has seemingly experienced a drop-in form.

Graphic: Wyscout

Villa have also become more careless with the ball. Previously they would on average be dispossessed 10 times a game, that average has now increased to 12 times a game. An increase in this will only contribute to the disjointed style of play fans have witnessed in the past few weeks.

Even without the injuries to Matty Cash and Jack Grealish, Villa have struggled. Whether this is due to the COVID-19 outbreak, general fatigue from the congested fixture list or their form at the start of the season was an overperformance, Villa are not the same team that they were at the beginning of the season.

Although there has been somewhat of a drop off, it is still remarkable how much Villa have progressed. Even in the recent games where they have struggled, they have managed to keep five clean sheets. The improvement defensively has been astronomical and has allowed Villa to grind out results even when they have struggled going forward. The chances and consequentially the goals will come with the return of the squad back to full fitness.

They have already reached the infamous 40-point mark, the pressure is off for the remainder of the season. With no threat of relegation and no real pressure or expectation to qualify for European football, Villa can plan for next season and anything else is a bonus for both the team and fans. The progress is clearly there, however consistency is what Villa must now work on.