‘Warne Down’ in the end?

As Coventry went two up at St Andrews this weekend, I heard the first doubting words aimed towards a manager, who I thought was safe from such criticism.

The words, uttered by a well balanced Rotherham friend, claimed that a growing percentage of Millers fans are getting a little bit fed up with boss Paul Warne. With this seed planted in my head, Rotherham’s trip to Watford takes on new meaning, and may point to where Warne’s tenure there is headed. 

My first experience of Paul Warne’s Rotherham was a Championship fact finding mission at the League One play-off final in May 2018. In a battle of the Pauls, Warne’s Rotherham beat Hurst’s Shrewsbury at Wembley. Both Pauls ended up working in the Championship the next season after Hurst joined Ipswich, ultimately both Ipswich and Rotherham would be relegated. 

In contrast to Hurst’s chaotic 16-game run at Ipswich, Rotherham and Warne were hailed as punching their weight, competing bravely, and actually turning a profit despite relegation. It was back to League One, and with a little help from the points per game vote, Rotherham were left holding the promotion parcel when Covid stopped the music.

This latest promotion is Warne’s second as Rotherham boss, he earned a further two during a 250 plus game playing career with the Millers. This type of service leaves much credit in the bank, but as we saw last season, when club legend Neil Harris cut short his Millwall managerial reign, credit only goes so far.

The damning statistic against Warne is his away record, with Rotherham winning a measly two out of 41 games under his management in the Championship. Away form like that leaves very little margin for error at the New York Stadium.

We know in the Championship, those clubs with larger revenues and squads tend to make it tricky for even the best recruiters, or tacticians to challenge them. And then there are those brave, sometimes foolhardy, owners that dare try to match the parachute clubs economically in the current FFP distorted landscape. 

For Rotherham, their chances are boosted by three such owners. The current bottom six contains Nottingham Forest, Derby County and Sheffield Wednesday, spelling out very clearly the dangers of taking on this broken model and not getting it right. 

If those three big clubs do move up the table, then it could be Rotherham left holding a wholly more undesirable parcel when the music stops this time. Leaving Warne with a third relegation to add to all those promotions.

The cringe inducingly patronising analysis that says ‘be careful what you wish for’, will no doubt be levelled by outsiders at those Rotherham fans who dare to question Warne. This analysis takes minimal thought, imagination, or information, to mindlessly repeat, but however maddening it is for fans to hear it, a stopped clock is right twice a day.

This time feels pivotal for Rotherham and Warne. Is fan criticism fair, or does he have the club performing at a level others would struggle to reach, meaning Millers followers should obey the cliche, hush their lip, and ‘be careful what they wish for’?

The hapless Rotherham away record will be tested severely again at Watford tonight, as an ex League One club meets an ex Premier League club. I suspect the salary paid to big name Hornets like Troy Deeney, Ismaila Sarr, or Etienne Capoue, would pay for most of the Rotherham squad each week. Therein lies the beauty, and madness of the Championship, the ‘haves vs the have nots’, and the ‘have nots’ tend to get ‘Warne down’ in the end! 

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