Cyrus Christie’s form may have dropped but Nottingham Forest need to stick with him

Nottingham Forest made fourteen signings this summer, but they need to stick with Cyrus Christie despite his drop in form.

The Fulham loanee joined midway through September as one of a number to sign under former boss Sabri Lamouchi. However, concerns have been raised over what he has to offer a Forest squad struggling at the wrong end of the table.

A reliance on goals from Lewis Grabban led to Lyle Taylor’s arrival; defensive weaknesses led to the arrival of Scott McKenna and Loic Mbe Soh, and a lack of midfield creativity resulted in the loan signings of Anthony Knockaert and Luke Freeman.

At least one player was signed in almost every position, meaning squad depth was provided – although, the mass influx ultimately resulted in Lamouchi’s departure as the new signings failed to gel quickly enough.

But one position was left particularly weak following a summer departure. Right-back.

Having had a stellar season at the City Ground, it was hardly a surprise when Matty Cash left Forest for a Premier League outfit. The 23-year-old made a £16 million move to Aston Villa in early September, leaving the Reds without many senior options at right-back.

Cyrus Christie joined Forest as the man to replace Cash, but he has had a limited start to life at the City Ground – with some fans beginning to question his automatic spot in the starting 11.

Since his arrival just over two months ago, Christie has been almost guaranteed a spot in the matchday squad. But it is hard to say that is down to an excellent run of form, given Tendayi Darikwa appears well out of the first-team picture, Carl Jenkinson can only make the substitutes’ bench and youngster Jordan Gabriel is on-loan at League One Blackpool.

In Christie’s defence, the 28-year-old has made the second-most interceptions in the team (18), beaten only by Jack Colback (24). He has also won the second-most tackles (18) and been the third most common cross creator (48).

All of these, at a quick glance, suggest he is one of Forest’s better defensive options. And you would probably be correct.

But upon a closer inspection, his pass success rate is eighth among Reds players who have made more than five appearances.

During the 1-0 home defeat against Swansea City, Christie made six crosses but only two created key chances for his attacking team-mates. Across the season so far, the Fulham loanee has had a cross accuracy of 28.3%, averaging 1.3 successful crosses and more than three unsuccessful crosses every 90 minutes – well above the league’s average for both metrics.

Attacking full-backs is a key feature of Hughton’s set-up – the 4-2-3-1 formation previously utilised by Lamouchi – with Yuri Ribeiro, Nicholas Ioannou or Christie required to make lung-busting runs on the outside of wingers in order to deliver crosses into the box.

Forest’s poor run in front of goal – failing to score in their last three matches – comes as a bit of a surprise given their expected goals rate (a statistic used to measure roughly how likely a shot will result in a goal) is within the top ten of teams in the Championship.

As Hughton reiterated at full-time after the defeat to Swansea, there are still plenty of aspects within Forest’s play that need improvement.

He said: “We had good periods of the game, very good periods of possession and also good periods of possession in the final third – but you’ve got to capitalise on that.

“We’re just not showing enough at the moment in that final third to get the breakthrough.

“I think it’s about making good enough decisions to be able to make those decisions to get that extra body in, and at times just working that little bit harder to get into the box.”

With pressure growing against Christie, it is hard to see where else Hughton could exhibit his trust.

Darikwa has been recovering from an ACL injury that ruled him out for most of last season; Jenkinson has featured on the substitutes’ bench for all but three of this term’s fixtures, but has been an unused option on all occasions; Gabriel, meanwhile, is proving a talented asset for Blackpool.

So who does Hughton look towards in order to shake up the squad?

If he is after an attacking alternative, Darikwa seems the best option. But look closer, comparing the 27-year-old’s most recent regular campaign – the 2018/19 season, and the full-back’s passing accuracy (75.5%) is only marginally better than Christie (75.4%). His tackle success (67.3%) is down against the Fulham loanee (70.8%) and his cross success rate (0.3 per 90 minutes) is much lower than Christie (1.3).

Jenkinson, similarly to Darikwa but for alternative motives, has found playing time hard to come by having made only eight appearances last season.

So then we come to Jordan Gabriel. The academy product has displayed his talent in League One with Blackpool, following up a loan spell with Scunthorpe United in the latter half of last season. But, should Forest be drawn into a relegation scrap, recalling the teenager for first-team Championship action could provide more harm than good and damage his future prospects due to the pressure and demands of staying up.

While Christie may be struggling for form, he is no stranger to the individual which made more than 100 appearances for Coventry City and Derby County. His performances may well warrant a rotation in his position but, with no clear alternative, the best option may well be to continue providing the Fulham loanee with trust and hope that his form soon turns a corner.

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