Kicking the Numbers: Still Bayern in the Bundesliga

Welcome back to Kicking the Numbers and back to our Expected Goals Analysis for the Bundesliga. We started this last season the Bundesliga and the Premier League and we are doing it again this season as well. Let’s start with the Bundesliga where Bayern are clear leaders in average expected goals (xG) per game at 3.34 and lead in lowest average xG against (0.52). However, their goalless draw against Schalke in Matchweek 2 has them two points behind Borussia Dortmund.

BVB are actually 12th in average xG at 1.56 and their xG against is third best at 0.87. Mostly because of the latter that they are top of the table and with a 100% record. Freiburg are third in the table averaging three goals per game while their xG was 2.21. They have only allowed three goals total which is below their xG against of 1.04.

At the bottom of the table are Borussia Mönchengladbach with 0 points and all sorts of bad defensively with an average xG against of 2.84 and shipping 16 goals on the season. Only Union Berlin has a worse margin between average xGA and average actual GA (-1.63).

FC Augsburg are overachieving in a big way so far. The have exceeded their xGF by an average of 0.97 per match and their xGA by 0.70. The biggest underachievers were FC Köln on xGF (-0.43) .

On our Expected Results table, we still expect a draw if the xG margin between the teams is 0.25 or less. Of the drawn matches in 2025-26, the average difference in xG was .274, so we were very close when we set that benchmark last season. Right now, we expected Augsburg to have just three points, but they actually have seven. Conversely, the expectations for Bayer Leverkusen on their xG was a 100% record, but they have seven points as well. Newly promoted side SC Paderborn were not expected to have any points based on their xG, but they have four points right now.

Again, all of this is early days and there are thirty matches left in the season. However, We have seen a lot of unexpected already.