Aston Villa have struggled with penalties since their promotion back to the Premier League in 2019.

With a combined number of seven penalties taken throughout the 2019/20, 2020/21 seasons and only 57% of them scored, it is clear they are an issue for Villa. The average penalty is scored 75% of the time, so why are Villa struggling below the average?

The first issue stems from the fact they have no regular penalty taker. Of the seven penalties taken there has been four different players taking them. Last season Jack Grealish and Wesley Moraes failed to score on their only opportunities from the spot, whilst Anwar El Ghazi buried his penalty at home to Manchester City, albeit a consolation goal in a fairly dismal performance.

The Dutchman has been the most prolific penalty taker for Aston Villa, scoring all three of his attempts. The issue is regardless of his form, he struggles to secure a regular starting spot within the squad and therefore cannot be the regular penalty taker if he isn’t regularly in the team.

This issue is worsened by Watkins struggling so heavily from the spot, in his last five penalty attempts he has only scored once (20% success rate), with the most disheartening one costing Villa a point away at West Ham this season. The penalty takers used so far in the 2020/21 season can be pictured in the graphic below, three of Watkins’ attempts came whilst playing for Brentford last season.

The next factor is the speed in which each player runs up. Both players take two seconds to get to the ball, but Watkins has a greater distance to cover. A slow and calmer run up such as El Ghazi’s will on average be saved 27.94% of the time, while faster run ups like Watkins’ will be saved 28.74% of the time.

Further to this is Watkins’ shot selection with his penalties. In this season Watkins has chosen to go with, statistically speaking, the least accurate option when taking a penalty, this being the top right corner. His penalty against Southampton proved it is effective, when executed correctly, however statistics caught up with Watkins against West Ham, as pictured above. 21.99% of penalties aimed for the top right corner are not converted, with 12.06% hitting the woodwork and 9.93% going wide.

El Ghazi’s shot selection is much better. His option is to go down the middle, statistically is the least likely shot to miss the target at 0.97%, although if the keeper stays still it is saved 32.65% of the time. Regardless of this, El Ghazi gives himself the best option of scoring by at least hitting the target.

Another example of his intelligent selection is his penalty against Manchester City, the top left corner has the greatest chance of going in with a scoring rate of 83.53% (6.62% going wide, 9.68% hit the woodwork). El Ghazi’s technique is clearly superior, but even after his form in December, scoring five goals, he has not managed to secure a regular starting spot in this Villa squad.

This begs the question, who will step up for Aston Villa in the event they get a penalty when El Ghazi is not on the pitch?

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