Inconsistency a problem for Leeds and Stoke, as they clash in the Championship

Approaching the restart, a glance over Leeds United’s fixture list would have made pleasant reading for the Whites.

Four matches against sides in the bottom seven, and just a single match against a top six opponent. It’s a kind run-in for Leeds, that most would assume would make things simple for the Yorkshire club. But doing things simply just wouldn’t be keeping in character.

A mixed bag of results have occurred. A 2-0 defeat against a Cardiff side who have hit form since the restart, which was followed by a superb and clinical display in a 3-0 win against promotion rivals Fulham. Their clinical play came out of the window in a disappointing 1-1 draw with Luton, but that coolness in front of goal was retrieved in a 3-1 victory over Blackburn.

It’s been a mixed bag for Leeds and has certainly kept things interesting. It has also made predicting their upcoming games an absolute nightmare.

There is some pattern, however. In the two games in which Leeds dropped points, the Whites had 69% possession against Cardiff and 75% against Luton. In their wins against Fulham and Blackburn, they had 43% and 60% respectively.

It’s a very small sample size, but what it does loosely show is that Leeds have struggled against teams who are more willing to sit back and allow the Whites to have the ball.

Be it a psychological effect such as frustration leading to poor finishing, or something more literal like simply having more bodies to shoot through, Leeds have struggled to finish off teams they have more overtly dominated.

So what does this spell for their game against Stoke on Thursday?

The Potters are not a team that make predictions easy either. A 1-1 draw against Reading to kick off their restart was followed by 2-0 and 3-0 defeats to Middlesbrough and Wigan respectively, before a 4-0 victory against Barnsley at the weekend.

They are yet to face a side in the top half of the table, and have had a mix of results against their relegation rivals.

Stoke are fairly consistent with their formation (4-2-3-1) and play a relatively solid and direct style under Michael O’Neill. But their starting line up has chopped and changed a fair bit in the four games since the restart, particularly their attacking quartet.

In their win against Barnsley, they allowed the Tykes to have the ball – 63% of it – and were able to play their way quickly and directly up the pitch with Sam Vokes as a target man up front.

Packing men behind the ball has been a useful approach against Leeds since the restart, and it’s likely Stoke will set up like this – especially after their success against Barnsley.

The Potters aren’t the most exciting side but they still have the odd dashing of Premier League quality throughout their team. Players capable of finishing off just the slightest of chances, something Leeds will be very wary of.

Luton managed a 1-1 draw despite recording 0.29 xG from the match according to Infogol, with Cardiff’s 2-0 victory coming from 0.32 xG compared to Leeds’s 2.07.

The Whites will need to ensure they finish their chances as they did against Blackburn and Fulham. An early goal would certainly help, forcing Stoke to come out of their shell more and leave a few more gaps at the back to exploit.

But if the Potters are able to frustrate Leeds for a lengthy period, they give themselves a strong chance of a result.

 

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