In his second column on Prost International, Kartik Krishnaiyer celebrates American Independence Day by ssessing the chances of the US Mens National Team (USMNT) in the upcoming World Cup.
Broadcaster and author Kartik Krishnaiyer becomes PINT’s second guest columnist
USA fans watch a World Cup qualifier in Nashville
Photo: Kassel Leventhal/Prost Amerika
July 4th is US Independence Day. It is the day in 1776 that thirteen largely insignificant British colonies declared their independence from the mother country. In fact, Britain had 27 total colonies in North America and the Carribean at the time, so less than half left the Empire at that moment. But it stands as the day Americans commemorate as the birth of their country.
With this in mind, for England to be drawn into FIFA World Cup Group B with Wales and the United States has to be a bit of a nightmare scenario.
Facing a former colony and a constituent nation of the United Kingdom is rife with all sorts of intrigue. But even more, from a football standpoint, it will prove difficult. Wales is very good and battle-tested, something we have months to ponder over, while the US is a radically changed side from past editions.
Before we get to breaking down the US, it’s worth remembering that England’s track record when matched up with Wales or the US in a major tournament isn’t great.
Wales won its Euro 2016 group that included England (despite losing to England in heartbreaking fashion in the group), and advanced the semifinals of the tournament – while England was embarrassingly put out by Iceland.
The last time the US and England were grouped together in a World Cup, the USA had an experienced side that played pragmatically and England under Fabio Capello were trying some new things after missing Euro 2008.
What resulted was one of the worst matches of the 2010 FIFA World Cup, a disjointed affair marred by Rob Green’s howler and England’s inability to stay on the front foot after an early goal. The USA won the group on goal difference, but neither side really left a mark on the tournament.
In 2022, both sides look very different.
The United States is currently managed by Gregg Berhalter, a former Crystal Palace defender, who is quite frankly a hard-core ideologue when it comes to tactics and style.
Unlike past US teams, which were pragmatic, shifted formations based on opponent and often played defensively, Berhalter prefers an attacking style of football and a positionally-based 4-3-3.
For years, a debate has raged in the USA as to whether the US needed a “distinct style of play,” like Spain or the Netherlands or should just play to its strengths which are desire and fitness.
In Berhalter and his boss, Men’s National Team General Manager Earnie Stewart, the US has implemented a very Dutch style of play, fulfilling the wishes of many who felt the US would never reach an elite level by being a defensive-oriented side.
This has created some difficulty as integrating players into a distinct style at international level, who play in a different manner for their clubs has not been as smooth as perhaps hoped.
Under Berhalter, the goals are often stylistic. His view is if the US plays the right way with strong positional discipline, tactical rigidity and dominance in possession of the ball, results will follow.
His model is very clearly the Ajax school of football and therefore, it’s no surprise he prefers the 4-3-3 formation. Thus far results have been uneven under Berhalter, but it can be argued like in club football, implementing a system takes time though you could argue a national team, with limited training time is not the place for such rigidity. But there is no question that the US tactical discipline and positional play has consistently improved since Berhalter took over in late 2018.
Christian Pulisic in action for the USA
Kassel Leventhal / Prost Amerika
This is in direct contrast to England, where Gareth Southgate has continued to be very pragmatic, and seems to constantly experiment with new formations and ideas.
Southgate is criticized for his perceived conservative approach – but the truth is very few swashbuckling sides, that lack defensive solidity have actually won major tournaments in recent years.
The US will attack, almost constantly in matches. This is in direct contrast to past US teams. For example in a 2016 Copa America semifinal loss vs Argentina, the US didn’t take a shot.
Now, the US is in a different paradigm, but one which is wholly dependent on tactical nous and increasingly vulnerable to being beaten on the counter-attack, which against Wales in particular could be a dangerous way to setup.
The key figures for the US, generally play for top club sides and all are under the age of 25 – Christian Pulisic of Chelsea, Weston McKennie of Juventus, Sergiño Dest of Barcelona, Tyler Adams of RB Leipzig, Gio Reyna of Dortmund, Tim Weah of Lille, and English-raised Yunas Musah of Valencia.
Brenden Aaronson who has been transferred to Leeds United this summer is an increasingly influential figure as is Fulham’s Antonee Robinson. Robinson grew up in England but opted to play for the US.
However, the USA’s most consistent player at the club level the last few years, John Brooks of Wolfsburg is nowhere to be found in Berhalter’s plans of late. Brooks has been omitted from the past three squads for whatever reason, leaving Berhalter scrambling to find a consistent central defensive pairing.
The other trouble spot as it is today for so many national sides is the number 9.
The US has cycled through five centre-forwards in qualifying and Concacaf Nations League, none of which have made a real impression. The favorite to start for a while was Ricardo Pepi of Augsburg but of late Berhalter has been looking for any player who might stick.
It’s also worth noting that despite Berhalter’s desire for a tactically sound side, US teams today look more disorganized than heading into every World Cup since 1998.
Some of this might have to do with the relative youth of the side, but probably more critical is the need to master another tactical setup in limited national team training sessions. It’s often said, national team managers keep tactics simple for a reason, but Berhalter has an opposite view. It should be noted that Berhalter will have time to drill the squad tactically during the weeks leading into the World Cup.
One last point may be completely unknow to English audiences given their long standing and storied rivalries with Scotland, Germany and Argentina. A rivalry with England exists in the minds of American soccer fans.
Given the interconnected nature of the English and Welsh football cultures in addition to other political factors that fuel rivalry, England’s chief rival in this group is obviously Wales.
Brenden Aaronson celebrates his goal against Canada
Photo: Kassel Levanthal / Prost Amerika
But the United States also views England as a rival, perhaps out of envy, a big brother complex which the states doesn’t share with the likes of France, Germany or Spain. It’s also worth noting at this point that the Premier League is more popular among television viewers in the US, than either of two major US domestic leagues, MLS or USL are. This fuels a greater interest in England and as a result a greater envy.
Group B has the prospect of being super-competitive and marked with different styles of football as well as some real rivalries. It should be fun.
And I haven’t even mentioned Iran!
Follow us on Twitter @ProstInt
[columns]
[column size=”1/2″][blog type=”timeline” posts=”10″ cats=”94″ heading=”Columns” heading_type=”timeline” /][/column]
[column size=”1/2″][blog type=”timeline” posts=”10″ cats=”7250″ heading=”Kartik Krishnaiyer” heading_type=”timeline” /][/column]
[/columns]
In his debut column on Prost International, Kartik Krishnaiyer assesses the chances of the three promoted sides; Fulham, Bournemouth and Nottingham Forest.
Broadcaster and author Kartik Krishnaiyer becomes PINT’s second guest columnist
In the period from 2018 to 2021 each season a newly promoted side from the Championship finished in the top half of the Premier League. Wolves seventh place finish in 2018-19 was followed up by Sheffield United’s eight place finish in the COVID-interrupted 2019-20 season and Leeds United finishing 9th in the 2020-21 season.
Last season, 2021 Promotion playoff winners Brentford surprised many by finishing lower mid-table, but the two automatically promoted teams in Norwich and Watford went right back down with a whimper. As time goes on and financial gaps widen between not only the top flight and the Championship but within both divisions, the advent of yo-yo teams is likely to continue.
Fulham
The Cottagers have now garnered the reputation of a yo-yo side. Grant me a moment as an American to relish the return of Fulham to the top flight of English football, as one of the peculiarities of the game in this country is that you find Fulham fans everywhere, and are more likely to stumble upon one than upon a West Ham, Aston Villa or Newcastle supporter in this nation.
Fulham’s last promotion came under Scott Parker, a decorated former player who had effectively drilled the side into playing organized, yet highly unattractive football.
Fulham’s promotion playoff final victory over Brentford at Wembley (side note: How cool was a West London Derby at Wembley even if there were no fans due to COVID?) was met with derision by many experts who felt the Bees were more prepared to compete in the Premier League – a view that proved credible based on Fulham’s relegation the next season, followed by Brentford’s promotion and strong first season in the top flight.
In hindsight, Fulham’s fate was sealed in both of its most recent promotions by handling the summer poorly – in 2019, Fulham overspent virtually buying a new squad. In 2021, they spent late and while Parker got many of the players he wanted, he had no time to effectively change the style of play and develop continuity.
Marco Silva’s Fulham side were among the most watchable anywhere in England in the 2021-22 campaign. Aleksandar Mitrović is often derided for being incapable of replicating his Championship success in the Premier League, but in Silva, he has a manager whose system plays to his strengths.
He will be fine. Mitrović may well be one of best pure number nine’s anywhere in English football right now. If you don’t believe that, check out his recent contributions for the Serbian National Team, who went from missing a 24-team Euros, to being one of only ten automatic UEFA qualifiers for this winter’s World Cup.
Speaking of internationals playing at a high level, Welsh midfielder Harry Wilson who has been a maestro for various Championship squads on loan from Liverpool has been signed permanently,. This is a big boost. for Silva. In Silva’s system, central defenders are key and they are not of a Premier League standard currently, but with a core that’s fought the battles before, and a manager with a clear system that works with this group, there is cause for optimism that the Cottagers stay in the division this go-round.
For a more local view, I contacted Louis, the founder of FulhamFanTV.
Here is his perspective:
“It’s going to be a difficult season For Fulham but with the right tactics and solid recruitment it could be a very positive season.
“Fulham will need to strengthen a few key positions especially back in defence, a new CB will give the squad more solidarity and confidence. This should in turn help the whole squad.
“The signing of Williams on a permanent deal should be high priority given how well he seamlessly fit into the squad.
“Fulham should look to continue the style of play into the new season, building on an already solid foundation.”
AFC Bournemouth
The Cherries were a slick side as built by Eddie Howe and his longtime number two Jason Tindall, both former Bournemouth players who had a clear playing style and preference for a certain type of player.
The squad punched above their weight for years and were relegated on the final day of the COVID-impacted 2019-20 season.
“Bournemouth on paper have the best squad of the three coming up”
Scott Parker moved from Fulham to Bournemouth in the summer of 2021 and while he got the Cherries back up, Lloyd Kelly stood out as Parker’s efforts to build a defense solidity as a platform for promotion were successful. But the side needs more consistency from its midfield which has several intriguing pieces and tends to build-up attacks slowly, not that different from the Howe-era, but with a much more robust defensive shape.
One of my overriding concerns about The Cherries is the sheer number of players they have on the books, including many veterans who would expect playing time. It should also be noted for Premier League fans who loved to deride his performances when a teenager, that Dominic Solanke has really come good the last two seasons in the Championship, and at 24 is entering his prime years.
Bournemouth on paper have the best squad of the three coming up.
But does that always matter? Generally it doesn’t, and the Cherries were too inconsistent for me at times last season. Still, they have a good chance at survival and Parker despite seeing Fulham relegated two seasons ago, impressed with his in-match tactical acumen that season, that often rescued points or turned potential losses into draws. That will be key for Bournemouth this season.
Jacob Tanswell covers AFC Bournemouth for Dorset Live Online. He noted:
“Plainly, Bournemouth and Scott Parker need to continue the direction of travel from the Championship, rather than deliberately change.
“Parker installed a framework based on defensive solidity – patient build-up play with at least five players behind the ball – while looking to counter attack quickly. This should garner success in the top-flight, given teams will be more inclined to attack Bournemouth and therein leave increased space at the back.
“Recruiting at least one consistent centre back to partner Lloyd Kelly and an attacking creator to thread balls through to Dominic Solanke will be key.”
Nottingham Forest
I could bore readers with a soliloquy about Brian Clough and Peter Taylor but will save that for another time.
But this is important, as Forest being back in the top flight is a special event for many of us who revel in the history of the English game.
Since Forest were last up in the 1998-99 season, not only has Clough passed away and Forest gone through numerous high-profile coaches and multiple owners, but they have had to look on as near-rivals Leicester City have won four domestic trophies including a Premier League title that may have just knocked Forest historic 1977-78 First Division title from the line of the most improbable.
In talking to Forest fans the last few years, a grudging respect has developed for Leicester, as they’ve proven the only non-”Big Six” side in England that’s able to regularly compete for European places and the odd trophy. Now Forest gets its own shot at glory.
Steve Copper is a manager that showed his quality at Swansea getting the Swans to back-to-back promotion playoffs despite virtually no investment from an ownership group more interested in quickly flipping youth players for a profit. Cooper came to Forest when they were the worst side in the division early last season and miraculously guided the side to promotion.
Cooper’s style of football is easy on the eye and utilizes pacey, yet skillful wide players as good as any setup outside the very top clubs in England.
Wales’ Brennan Johnson has emerged as a legitimate superstar under Cooper, a player that is likely to be on the radar of the top clubs on the planet within the next 12-24 months. Johnson now has a Premier League campaign with Forest and a World Cup with Wales to put himself on everyone’s short list.
Brice Samba appears likely to move on having rejected fresh contract terms, but in his stead might come Dean Henderson, and straight away that gives Forest a keeper with Premier League experience and England aspirations.
In fact, a good start to the season might put Henderson on the plane to Qatar. However with restrictions on loan players, it’s possible Henderson being loaned from Manchester United to Forest would mean the excellent James Garner won’t himself return on loan from United. This would be a blow for Cooper. It is possible that Garner could be bought outright, and that’s a move Forest has to make if they want to keep the solidity from the second half of last season.
Forest were promoted with a number of loan players, similar to Aston Villa in 2019.
That Villa team then overspent in the summer in a manner similar to Fulham the previous summer and only stayed up by the skin of their teeth the final day of the season with a draw at London Stadium.
Recruitment is the key. Forest will have a tough task, but being back up after over two decades in itself is a cause for celebration.
Scott Eley is East Midlands Editor on Prost International:
“If last season’s achievement through the playoffs was considered miraculous, Steve Cooper will need to work further magic to keep Forest in the Premier League starting with a vital summer transfer window.
“Forest used the loan market to great effect last summer but now face the heavy reality of losing outstanding performers in Djed Spence, James Garner, Keinan Davis, Philip Zinckernagel and Max Lowe.
“The squad is certainly looking threadbare and add to that Lewis Grabban is out of contract and star keeper Brice Samba has just rejected fresh terms. To makes things a little trickier for Cooper, Forest will also be restricted to just two loan players as Premier League rules specify.
“In CEO Dane Murphy, recruitment has been a huge area of improvement and Forest will feel confident that between him and Cooper, players of real quality will be added to the squad. Forest are looking light in each department and there could be a number of new arrivals to bolster and replace outgoings.
“A defender with pace, an experienced midfielder with pedigree and at least two proven strikers are must haves.”
Which of the three has the best chance of staying up?
Conventional wisdom says Bouremouth, but I believe Fulham under Silva have a style and a platform to stay up. Fulham has a more complete squad, with the exception of an imposing centre-half than they did in the previous two trips to the top flight.
Who could go down if Fulham and/or Bournemouth and Forest stay up?
That’s a conversation for another day, but will tease that discussion by saying Leeds United face a critical summer for recruitment and turning over a squad built by Marcelo Bielsa to play a style of football that will suit new Manager Jesse Marsch. Brentford also come to mind, but given they have excelled at recruitment since the mid 2010’s, I think they find a way to get the right players in.
Perhaps Southampton have the most to do?
But again this is a conversation for another day. Thanks for indulging me and I hope we can keep the conversation going throughout the next several years!
A new guest columnist will appear next week
Follow us on Twitter @ProstInt
[columns]
[column size=”1/2″][blog type=”timeline” posts=”10″ cats=”94″ heading=”Columns” heading_type=”timeline” /][/column]
[column size=”1/2″][blog type=”timeline” posts=”10″ cats=”7250″ heading=”Kartik Krishnaiyer” heading_type=”timeline” /][/column]
[/columns]