Antonio Conte isn’t ready to go home yet. Despite having announced many months ago that he would be stepping down as the national team coach at the conclusion of Euro 2016, Conte is in no hurry to move on to his next job, and stated today that he is eager to go as far as possible in this prestigious competition. But his incredible will and energy as a coach may not be enough.

After starting off the tournament in the best possible fashion, beating both Belgium and Sweden to secure first place in their group after just two games, some bad luck means that Italy will have to face powerhouse Spain in their second round match, meaning they could be sent home tomorrow and all that good work will go to waste.

To make matters worse, Antonio Candreva has been ruled out of the match due to injury, meaning Italy will be without their strongest midfield player. Indeed, Candreva is the engine that powers the Italian machine, and the Azzurri count on him not only to work very hard, but also to create offensive opportunities and keep opponents off-balance.

His place in the starting eleven is likely to be filled by Florenzi, but the Roma player lacks both the poise and the skill of his Lazio counterpart. With Darmian expected to start on the opposite end of the midfield, Italy are unlikely to produce very much on the flanks, meaning the Spanish defense will be free to stay compact and organized. And since Conte seems to have some personal issue with Insigne (Eder and Pelle are expected to start again), there isn’t anyone in the Italian starting lineup likely to do anything creative enough to thwart said organization.

It’s not all doom and gloom, however. The Italian defense remains one of the best overall units in the competition, with the Juventus quartet of Buffon, Bonucci, Barzagli and Chiellini providing experience, organization and strength. Crucially,  they also know Morata inside and out, which could help keep the promising young Spaniard at bay.

And, of course, they are Italy. No other nations steps up their game in knockout situations as much as they do. They are the masters of playing the game incredibly tight, not making any mistakes and being ready to pounce the minute their opponents slip up. Spain has also looked more vulnerable as of late, so expect this match to be a lot more competitive than it looks on paper.